In a landmark decision, Finland’s government announced on Thursday that it would ask “without delay” for the Nordic country to join NATO, the 30-member military alliance led by the United States. Russia, whose invasion of Ukraine prompted the move, has vowed to retaliate against its neighbour.
The Finns maintained military neutrality since the end of the Second World War, in a tacit agreement with the then Soviet Union to avoid a new conflict like the ones that the countries fought during the global clash.
They should be followed by Sweden, ending more than 200 years of neutrality from the neighbor. The Parliament in Stockholm is expected to give its opinion on the matter this Friday (13). Both countries changed their minds and sought the US military umbrella out of fear of Russian aggression.
“Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make the decision will be taken quickly in the coming days,” President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a statement.
The request must be analyzed by the local Parliament, which already has a majority for it, after public opinion in the country turns in favor of participation. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the process would be “fast and smooth” and that Helsinki would be “very welcome”.
Predictably, member states of the alliance issued congratulations on the measure, which will change the security architecture of northern Europe, certainly a side effect that Moscow did not expect when it invaded Ukraine, citing among other things the need to prevent Kiev from joining the same NATO. .
On Thursday, Niinistö had met with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and said: “If we do join, well, my answer [para Vladimir Putin] would you cause it, look in the mirror”.
The Russian bad mood in the episode had already been made clear by previous threats to place nuclear weapons near the Finnish and Swedish borders, and it exploded on Thursday in the words of spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
“Nato’s expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure,” he said, adding that Russia “definitely sees Finnish membership as a threat to its national security.” “NATO is coming our way. Everything will depend on how this expansion will take place, what military infrastructure will be moved to our borders,” he added.
Accepted into the alliance, as it will be, Finland will be the NATO country with the longest shared border with Russia: 1,300 km. Ukraine has 2,300 km, part of which was violated by Putin on February 24, in the biggest military action in Europe since the end of World War II.
Peskov was careful not to repeat the direct threat of war, as Russia did with Ukraine, because he knows that the Finnish situation is a fait accompli, which breaks two treaties (1947 and 1992) between Moscow and Helsinki. More: NATO is expected to extend some sort of interim security guarantee during the accession process, although this is not clear. Once in the alliance, attacking one member means attacking everyone.
But he again said that Russia “is prepared to give the most incisive response to anyone who tries in any way to enter the military operation in Ukraine”. The West has supported Kiev with weapons, money and intelligence, but has not sent soldiers. “Everyone, including Russia, wants to avoid a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO,” he said — an obvious one, given that both sides have nuclear weapons.
Nordic neutrality has always been about Russia. Sweden was an expansionist kingdom and invaded its large neighbor in the 18th century, but in 1809 it decided to isolate itself after losing Finland to the Russian Empire.
In the two wars it fought against the Russians between 1939 and 1944, Finland managed to avoid annexation by the Soviets, but lost 10% of its territory. This trauma led the country to adopt a strict policy of non-alignment, similar to that of its neighbor more than a century earlier.
In practice, however, neutrality was partial, especially in the Swedish case. Both countries have been members of the European Union since 1994, which gives them access to a mutual defense clause in NATO standards, although it is little known and no one knows how it would trigger.
Sweden, in particular, also has an incisive, Western-aligned military stance. With a sophisticated defense industry, producing much of the light anti-tank weapons used against Moscow by Ukraine, submarines and fighter jets such as the Saab Gripen sold to Brazil, Stockholm operates in harmony with NATO in the post-Cold War environment, participating in several exercises. sets.
In recent years, it has increased its military spending and repeatedly triggered the state of alert due to the turmoil involving Russia, such as the suppressed protests in the Kremlin-allied dictatorship of Belarus. Intrusions by Russian planes on the fringes of their airspace are common, and two have already taken place after the start of the war, to Swedish protests.
In the country, a survey by the newspaper Aftonbladet carried out this week showed support of 61% of the population for joining NATO, compared to a historical 20%. The party that dominates local political life, the Social Democrats, is also finishing the revision of its policy of neutrality.
After the remilitarization of Germany, announced by Prime Minister Olaf Scholz in the form of a reinforcement that will triple the country’s defense budget this year, the entry of the Nordics into NATO is the biggest side effect of the Russian invasion for the security of the continent.
It is being celebrated mainly by Poland and the three Baltic States, which are especially threatened by Russia. “The main addition to our defense plans is in the maritime and aerospace areas. Our reaction time will be reduced,” said Estonian Armed Forces chief Enno Mot.
The move will thus leave Switzerland as the mainland’s neutral stronghold. Previously, Geneva and Helsinki shared the spotlight for summit meetings between Russia and Western countries, such as the 2018 meeting between Putin and Donald Trump, held in the Finnish capital, or the Russian one with Joe Biden, based in the Swiss city last year.
