Despite the difficulties in obtaining and the high prices of fertilizers, Brazil is expected to increase the soybean area to 42.3 million hectares in the 2022/23 harvest, up from 41 million hectares in the current, hitherto record.
As a result, production has the potential to reach 148.8 million tons, 23.5 million more than the volume estimated for this year.
The forecasts are from the consultancy Céleres, which still expects an economically favorable harvest for Brazilian producers, due to the depreciated real and the high international prices of the oilseed.
Production, imports and carry-over stocks will increase the domestic supply of soybeans to 152 million tons in 2023. Of this volume, 48.4 million will be crushed internally and another 94.5 million will be exported. This year, due to the drought in the South, exports will be at 78 million tons, according to the consultancy.
Brazil also increases corn production, whose world market is still experiencing some uncertainties. In the external area, there are uncertainties about production in Ukraine, due to the war, and about the crop in the United States, which is still with delayed planting.
In Brazil, there is a drop in production in the off-season due to the drought in southwest Goiás and southeast Mato Grosso. As a result, Céleres’ current forecast is for a production of 86 million tons in the off-season, below the initial potential of 92 million.
Even with this reduction in the off-season, in relation to the initial forecast, the total national volume will reach a record of 111 million tons, according to the consultancy.
This volume does not, however, consider reductions that may be generated by possible frosts in the South and Southeast regions, which are important for national production.
The sector’s profitability should be good in the second half, especially for those who have the ability to store the cereal. The price movement will be bullish, believe Céleres analysts.
Current data from the consultancy indicate that the total area of ​​corn this year reached 21.7 million hectares, 16.4 million of which were sown in the off-season. In the previous harvest, the total area had been 20 million hectares, 15 million of them in the off-season.
Total corn production for the 2021/22 period will be a record, amounting to 111 million tons, but a volume lower than the 122 million initially projected.
Céleres, throughout the season, reduced estimates of animal consumption of corn to 53.2 million tons, but raised those of cereal in ethanol production to 10.3 million.
A less comfortable figure is the reduction of ending stocks to 9.2 million tons. Initially, they were forecast at 20.2 million.
There is also a reduction in exports for 2022, which should not reach the initial potential of 42 million tons. They are close to 35 million, according to the consultancy’s assessment.
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