The dollar was lower against the real in early trading on Wednesday (1st), a move in line with the strengthening of some risky currencies abroad, such as the Australian and South African, but starting June amid renewed fears about global inflationary pressures and their possible impact on the interest rate hikes of the main central banks.
At 9:04 am (GMT), the spot dollar retreated 0.29%, to R$ 4.7405 on sale.
On B3, at 9:04 am (GMT), the dollar futures contract with the first maturity rose 0.16% to R$4.7805.
The US spot currency closed the last session with a positive variation of 0.02%, at R$ 4.7542.
​The day before, in a session marked by volatility, the dollar started trading higher against the real, started to retreat in the early afternoon, and ended the day stable in relation to the previous closing, quoted at R$ 4.7540 for sale .
The rise and fall of the currency results from the formation of Ptax, a rate that serves as a reference for the settlement of contracts in dollars. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient for their positions.
At the high of the day, the currency came to R$4.7780 (up 0.50%), with the low at R$4.6980 (down 1.17%).
In the month, the American currency registered a devaluation of 3.82%, the biggest for a month of May since 2009, when it retreated 10.3%. In the year, the currency starts to mark a depreciation of 14.75%.
As a result, the real had the third best monthly performance among some of its main emerging pairs, behind only the Russian ruble (up 16.5%) and the Colombian peso (up 5.1%).
The trajectory of May, however, was tortuous. The dollar came to accumulate a high of about 4.3% in the month until the 9th, when globally investors felt the pressure of higher interest rates amid concerns about China.
Subsequently, a combination of still strong US data, but with readings suggesting inflation close to the peak, eased fears of stagflation, opening space for a resumption of risk appetite that benefited the most varied asset classes, including the emerging exchange rate. .
About the next month, June is historically the dollar’s fall. Since 2003, the currency has retreated on 14 occasions and rose on 5. The 15th will be particularly important, when both the US and Brazilian central banks will announce monetary policy decisions with the potential to change the scenarios outlined so far by analysts.
BV’s chief economist, Roberto Padovani, pondered that his expectation is for a strong dollar in the world with high interest rates and weaker growth, which theoretically puts downward pressure on commodity prices – whose escalation was behind the recent appreciation of the real. .
“This combination in theory more than compensates for the high interest rates in Brazil,” he said.
“The second half in Brazil will be bad for the foreign exchange market. In addition to external factors, we will have an important economic slowdown in this period, and historically less growth does not attract capital,” he said. “If you combine global slowdown, local slowdown and elections here, that translates to increased risk.”
Stock market closes the month up 3.2%; year, up 6.2%
On the Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa stock index ended this Tuesday’s session with a slight increase of 0.29%, at 111,350 points, with accumulated gains of 3.22% in May and 6.22% in the year.
The shares of Petrobras contributed to the positive performance of the stock on the day, which followed the rise of around 1% in the barrel of Brent oil in the international market, with gains of 0.76% in the state’s common shares.
Eletrobras shares, which the day before retreated about 3%, with uncertainties about the privatization process, closed this Tuesday at a high of 0.33%.
The financial sector also favored the stock exchange’s positive performance, with an increase of 1.52% in Banco do Brasil shares and 0.93% in Itaú. Bradesco’s closed up 0.59%, while Santander’s advanced 0.18%.
In the global market, caution prevailed in the main stock exchanges in the United States and Europe, with concerns about inflationary pressure and the impact on the pace of activity growth once again weighing on investors’ mood.
On US stocks, the S&P 500 dropped 0.63%, and the Dow Jones ended down 0.63%. The Nasdaq, with the highest concentration of technology stocks, registered a depreciation of 0.41%.
In Europe, greater risk aversion also set the tone on the stock exchanges, with a 1.43% drop in the Paris CAC-40 and 1.29% in the Frankfurt DAX. London’s FTSE-100 rose slightly by 0.1%.
XP analysts point out that data released on Tuesday showed inflation in the euro zone rose to a record high in May, raising bets on further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Inflation in the European bloc accelerated to 8.1% in May from 7.4% in April, beating expectations of 7.7% as price growth continued to expand, indicating it is no longer just energy. pulling the number.
“Investors will be watching closely for any change in the ECB’s stance after its meeting next week. So far, the central bank has signaled that it will start its interest rate hike cycle in July, with the rate rising to 0.25%,” they point out. XP analysts in a report.
with Reuters
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