Analysts are divided on the use of the FGTS in the Eletrobras offer

As of this Friday (3) investors will be able to participate in the Eletrobras share offering, in the privatization process of the state-owned electric energy company, which will reduce the State’s participation in the company. Shares can be reserved between June 3rd and 8th.

Individuals will be able to invest money from the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço), up to a limit of 50% of the balance, to buy company shares, in the same way as was done in the early 2000s with Vale and Petrobras.

Although the profitability obtained with the investment in the shares of the two companies has far surpassed the return of the FGTS in the last two decades, market analysts are divided in relation to the attractiveness of the investment for retail investors.

If, on the one hand, investing in Eletrobras shares on the Stock Exchange can provide the shareholder with returns well above those provided by the Guarantee Fund, on the other hand, it is also necessary to consider the significantly greater risk of making an allocation in variable income, compared to the return guaranteed from the FGTS.

According to Caixa, law 8,036/1990 establishes that deposits made in FGTS accounts will be monetarily adjusted by the TR (Referential Rate) plus capitalization of interest of 3% per year.

As of 2016, with Provisional Measure 763/2016, later converted into law 13,446/2017, workers have the right to distribute part of the FGTS profit, the value of which is defined by the fund’s Board of Trustees. This annual distribution has increased the profitability of the linked FGTS accounts, in addition to the remuneration provided for by law.

In the years 2019 and 2020, the nominal yield of the Guarantee Fund was around 4.9%. The FGTS Board of Trustees will define what percentage will be distributed and credited to the linked accounts until August, at which time it will be possible to indicate the profitability in the year 2021.

Petrobras and Vale have delivered returns well above the FGTS in recent years

An analysis carried out by the Genial Investimentos team shows that the worker who invested FGTS resources in Petrobras and Vale’s share offerings, in the early 2000s, obtained results well above those delivered by the Guarantee Fund.

The investment in Petrobras shares, from August 18, 2000, until May 24, 2022, yielded about 1,153%, against 185% of the FGTS, and 289% of inflation measured by the IPCA (National Index of Consumer Prices) .

Also according to the survey by Genial, the investor who had invested R$5,000 in Petrobras shares at the time would have today approximately R$58,000, compared to R$14,200 invested in the FGTS, and R$19 .5 thousand, adjusted for inflation.

In the case of Vale, the yield was even more expressive. Since the offer in which investors were also able to use FGTS resources to buy shares in the mining company, on March 28, 2002, until May 24, 2022, the company’s shares have increased in value by approximately 3,900%. The FGTS yielded 156% in the same period, while inflation was 247%.

With BRL 5,000 invested in Vale’s shares at the time, the investor would currently have a balance of BRL 195,000, against BRL 12,800 in the FGTS, and BRL 17,300 adjusted by the IPCA in the interval.

“Our focus is not to encourage the client to invest in Eletrobras funds, but to put the opportunity cost in perspective in relation to the FGTS, which last year was well below inflation”, says Bruno Stuani, the executive responsible for the Genial investors.

He adds that the investor needs to be prudent and should only allocate a portion of the resources that he is willing to keep in the long term, in order to withstand the intrinsic volatility of the stock market, that is, the ups and downs of the market.

Investor risk profile must be taken into account

According to Louise Barsi, a partner in the financial education project AGF (Ações Garantem Futuro), whenever investors carry out an analysis of a new company that they want to include in their portfolio, they must take into account a series of factors, comparing all the pros and cons.

“You don’t buy a company based only on a single event, in this case, privatization. Privatization is a very important trigger, but it shouldn’t be the only one”, says the expert, adding that Eletrobras is one of the largest energy companies in the world, responsible for approximately 30% of all renewable generation in the country and the largest transmitter in Latin America.

Louise also states that the decision on the contribution to the offer will depend not only on the risk profile of each investor, but also on how the worker views the management of these resources. For many, points out the AGF member, the FGTS represents a complement to the emergency reserve, which will be used in times of vulnerability, such as unemployment and serious illness.

“So, if the worker has needed these resources before, in delicate moments, or doesn’t have, for example, an emergency reserve in the fixed income, the recommendation is that he adopt a conservative posture and invest, at most, from 5% to 10% of the Guarantee Fund resources”, says the specialist.

Analyst recommends investment, but only with FGTS resources

Founding partner of the investment analysis house Nord Research, Bruce Barbosa believes that, considering the annualized profitability of 3% of the FGTS, plus the annual distribution of profits, the contribution to Eletrobras’ offer with the resources of the Guarantee Fund makes sense.

In particular, considering the potential for new investments and the consequent growth of the company’s operating results after capitalization, says the expert.

He adds, however, that the investment in Eletrobras shares with FGTS resources should not exceed a slice of 10% of the available balance, to avoid that the investor is excessively exposed to a single asset.

If the investor is considering allocating part of the resources in the energy company’s offer without using the FGTS, in this case, the Nord partner understands that the risk is not worth it.

“This is because there are more interesting names on the stock exchange, which tend to deliver better returns over a medium and long-term horizon than Eletrobras”, says Barbosa.

In the energy sector itself, he points out the roles of companies such as Neoenergia and EDP (Energias do Brasil). “And within the stock exchange as a whole, actions such as the car rental companies Unidas and Movida, in addition to the private oil company PetroRio.”

Recent rise in Eletrobras shares already includes privatization gains

As for Flávio Conde, head of equity analysis at Levante Ideias de Investimentos, whether with or without the FGTS balance, the investor should not contribute any value to the Eletrobras offer.

Conde says that, over the last few months and years, the company’s shares have already registered a very significant appreciation, well above the market average, precisely because of the agents’ expectations about privatization and the eventual efficiency gains brought by the process.

In the last five years, the common shares of Eletrobras accumulated appreciation of 206.4%, until May 31, against 77.5% of the Ibovespa index in the same interval.

For the upward movement of shares to continue at the same pace, says the Levante specialist, a very radical evolution of the company would be necessary in terms of profitability in the next quarterly balance sheets.

“But this scenario is still not clear at the moment”, says Conde, adding that the Stock Exchange itself, more broadly, may still go through moments of greater volatility ahead, with higher interest rates both in Brazil and abroad, and with the uncertainties related to the electoral dispute.

Therefore, says the head of analysis at Levante, it is more prudent for the investor to keep the funds in the FGTS, with a modest but guaranteed gain, than to risk placing them in Eletrobras shares, which may have a much higher valuation than the Fundo de Guarantee, as well as bringing negative returns to the portfolio in the coming years.

40 million workers are able to invest FGTS money

Conde also recalls that, if the purchase is made using FGTS resources, the investor will have to keep the shares for a period of at least 12 months.

After this period, the sale will be released, but, in case of negotiation of the securities, the balance obtained with the sale will be in the Guarantee Fund account and can only be withdrawn according to the legal rules, that is, dismissal without just cause, purchase home ownership and retirement, among others (see here the 16 situations that allow FGTS withdrawal).

In addition, the amount to be invested by the worker in the Eletrobras offer with FGTS funds is no longer considered as a balance in the Guarantee Fund, except as a reference for calculating the termination fine due to the worker in the event of dismissal without just cause, according to information from the Box.

With this, the amount contributed in the offer with FGTS resources will no longer be considered for the purposes of calculating the profit of the Guarantee Fund to be distributed to workers, since it will be debited from the FGTS account and transferred to the FMP-FGTS administrator in which the worker made the application.

The worker will have reserved a minimum amount of R$ 5,000 to use his FGTS, according to the statement released by Eletrobras on Friday (27). The limit is BRL 50,000 and you can use up to 50% of the balance in the fund.

According to Caixa, there are about 40 million workers who have a FGTS account with a balance that can be used in Eletrobras’ actions.

“However, in order to apply, the amounts cannot be blocked for any reason, such as a guarantee of a credit operation in anticipation of an anniversary withdrawal and a court order”, informs the bank.

The offer of shares will be open to investors who already hold common or preferred shares of the company, employees and retirees of the state-owned company, workers who have funds in the FGTS and other investors.

Collaborated with Cristiane Gercina