Opposition pity and manages to bar only part of Bolsonaro’s liberal agenda

The liberal economic agenda of the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL) found little opposition in the Legislature and it had to ally itself with center and center-right parties to bar proposals considered more controversial or approve more generous measures for the lower income population.

Under an unfavorable correlation of forces for the opponents, the team of Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) managed to approve a more robust pension reform, with a minimum retirement age, and the capitalization of Eletrobras, which will transfer control of the company to the hands of the private initiative.

The government also managed to freeze, for two years (2020 and 2021), the salaries of public servants as a counterpart to the billionaire bailout to states and municipalities due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the other hand, anti-government subtitles were successful in holding back changes such as the cut in the value of the BPC (Benefício de Prestação Continuada), aid of a minimum wage (R$ 1,212) paid to the elderly and low-income people with disabilities. .

The group also overturned the controversial system of capitalization in Social Security, one of Guedes’ great banners since the 2018 campaign. Under the model, the worker would save for his own retirement without any help from the employer.

The administrative reform, which would change the rules for entering the public service and make the stability of the civil service more flexible, was also blocked in Congress.

To ensure these victories, however, the opposition parties needed the decisive reinforcement of the centrist parties.

It was also like that in March 2020, when these two blocks pressured Bolsonaro and managed to guarantee emergency aid greater than the R$200 proposed by the government to help families in the Covid-19 pandemic.

The amount ended up at R$ 600. There was also an amendment by the PSOL bench that proposed double payment (that is, R$ 1,200 monthly) for single mothers.

“In these more economical matters, the correlation of forces is unfavorable for the opposition, so we have more difficulty. Unless we get a formulation that divides the other field more. Without that, we can’t”, recognizes the leader of PC do B in the Chamber, Renildo Calheiros (PE).

Deputy Paulo Teixeira (PT-SP), deputy leader of the opposition in the Chamber, also admits that the alliance with centrist parties was “determining and decisive” for the parties to be able to block proposals from the Guedes team, or to advance on points on the agenda. from the most progressive field.

The opposition brings together the subtitles PT, PDT, PSB, PC do B, PSOL and Rede. Together, they have 122 deputies, according to Diap (Inter-union Department of Parliamentary Advice).

The body’s monitoring shows that, in the current configuration of the Chamber, with 513 parliamentarians, only the first terms of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff (PT), in addition to Michel Temer (MDB), had even less numerous opposition.

The small size of the bench is attributed, in part, to the electoral environment of 2018, marked by a feeling against the left that boosted Bolsonaro and candidates from his political field.

Even in an adverse scenario, one of the opposition’s greatest achievements was to overturn two government attempts to relax labor laws and create new hiring regimes, with fewer burdens for employers and lower contributions to the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia por Tempo de Serviço).

The changes, defended by the economic team to boost job creation, were criticized by parliamentarians and the Public Ministry of Labor.

The first onslaught was at the end of 2019. Strengthened by the approval of the Social Security reform, the government sent an MP (provisional measure) that instituted the Green and Yellow Job, which sought to encourage the hiring of young people up to 24 years old.

The measure was approved in the Chamber, but stalled in the Senate, where Bolsonaro’s support base is smaller. With no prospect of progress, the government ended up revoking the MP, avoiding an explicit defeat.

The second attempt took place in 2021. The deputies took advantage of a measure that reissued emergency labor standards for the pandemic to rescue the changes in the CLT (Consolidation of Labor Laws). The text, which originally had 24 articles, now has 95 devices.

The proposal was again approved by the Chamber, but had a setback in the Senate, which at the time was already the stage of the CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) of Covid-19. The measure was overturned by 47 votes to 27.

“The Senate became oxygen for us [de oposição]”, says Paulo Teixeira. According to him, the House chaired by Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) ended up moderating some articles and holding projects such as the privatization of the Post Office, approved by the Chamber.

The minority leader in the Senate, Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), highlights other proposals that have stalled in the House, such as the merging of minimum expenditure on health and education and the extinction of public funds, whose resources have a defined application.

Political analyst Bruno Carazza, a professor at Fundação Dom Cabral, assesses that the opposition’s power in the Chamber was “hampered” by regimental changes promoted in May 2021.

The reform, sponsored by the then newly elected president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), limited the so-called obstruction kit, a series of instruments that the opposition used to delay controversial votes in search of agreement or concession. Discussions that previously lasted two or three days in the plenary were shortened to a few hours.

“Where does this agenda [do governo] ended up running aground was precisely in the Senate, where the power of the centrão is much smaller than in the Chamber”, says Carazza.

At the time of the change in regiment, Lira denied that the text had been forcibly conquered and said that there had been dialogue with the opposition. “The modernization of the bylaws will qualify the debate and increase —instead of decreasing—the time for discussion of matters. But at the same time, it will prevent the trivialization of obstruction, a legitimate right of minorities”, he said at the time.

The leader of the PC do B says that the change in the regiment was very bad for the opposition and warns that, if today the withdrawal of these instruments stifles the performance of the left, at another time it may turn against parties from other ideological spectrums. “In the Lula and Dilma administrations, it was the other political field that was in the opposition”, he recalls.

To try to circumvent the disadvantaged situation, parliamentarians against the government seek mobilization strategies, in person and on social networks.

The deputy leader of the PSOL in the Chamber, Fernanda Melchionna (RS), says that this vision was crucial to stop the administrative reform of civil servants and also the proposal to flatten the readjustment of the teaching floor — a measure supported by city halls, which complain about the weight of wages on your finances.

“The Bolsonaro government tried to put [apenas] the inflation rate to correct the teaching floor, but there was a mobilization of teachers”, says the deputy. The articulation of the allied base sank, and this year a 33.24% increase in the category floor was official.

Even so, the opposition was not able to impose its own agenda and, many times, adopted a more pragmatic posture to negotiate modifications or concessions.

“We are always working to improve the subjects. This has been the position of the PDT. We vote against what makes sense, we debate and improve on what makes sense”, says Deputy Mauro Benevides (PDT-CE ), deputy leader of the legend in the Chamber and ex-Secretary of Finance of Ceará.

This occurred, for example, with the creation of Auxílio Brasil, which replaced Bolsa Família — a social brand of PT administrations.

But in other situations, such as the vote on proposals to cut state taxes on fuel, the group was faced with a dilemma: to remain faithful to the belief that the measure would be ineffective, at the political risk of being accused of barring measures in favor of consumers, or vote with the government. The latter ended up prevailing.

“The opposition played along with the government. In many of the measures, it was a partner”, analyzes Carazza. Although the specialist sees a confluence of interests in agendas such as social benefits, he says that the opposition was powerless to endorse agendas such as a fairer tax system or measures in the environmental area.