After more than a month without the release of the Focus survey by the Central Bank, the median projection of economists for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in 2022 jumped from 0.70% to 1.20%.
Economists’ estimates for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), in a challenging inflationary scenario, went from 7.89% to 8.89% in 2022 and rose from 4.10% to 4.39% in 2023
The BC had not released the Focus survey since May 2, when it interrupted the weekly publication due to the strike by the monetary authority’s servers. Employees once again crossed their arms on May 3 for a 27% salary readjustment and career restructuring, after a two-week truce, and the stoppage continues indefinitely.
In a context of successive deterioration of expectations, the market puts inflation further and further away from the 3.5% objective pursued by the BC this year, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points or so.
This would represent the second consecutive overflow of the target, which is established by the CMN (National Monetary Council). In 2021, the IPCA totaled 10.06%, the highest since 2015.
Inflation for 2023 has also already been placed above the center of the 3.25% target – with a tolerance range of 1.75% to 4.75% next year.
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