Commodity shuttle: agro GDP falls this year, and producer income grows less

The world prices of agricultural products remain high this year, but the income of Brazilian producers, although still positive, lose the accelerated rhythm registered in previous years.

The CRB (International Commodity Price Index) is expected to rise, in dollars, by 35% in 2022, driven by the 3.6% growth of the global economy.

Revenues from Brazilian producers, however, will increase by 9%, a low rate compared to 52% last year.

The data are from the consultancy MacroSector, which forecasts revenues of R$ 902 billion for national agriculture. The sector’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) repeats the downward trend of 2021 and ends the year with a reduction of 0.5%. Last year, the fall had been 0.2%.

Commodity prices remain at good levels, but Brazilian producers’ revenues will be lower due to high costs.

According to MacroSector analysts, the exchange ratio is quite unfavorable. This month, soybean farmers in Mato Grosso spend 28.4 bags of soybeans to buy a ton of specific fertilizer for this crop. In June of last year, there were 21.6.

This bad exchange ratio spreads across all cultures. Corn producers in Paraná spend 66.7 bags of cereal per ton of fertilizer, a volume well above the 38.1 in June 2021.

Even the coffee producers, who had been having a more comfortable relationship, started to spend more bags for a ton of fertilizer. This month, there are 4.8 bags, up from 2.1 in June 2021.

According to MacroSector, soybeans will have average prices of BRL 189 per bag this year, 11% higher than in 2021. Corn will grow by only 2%, with the bag reaching BRL 92.5 on average. .

Given the high prices of fertilizers, analysts at the consultancy predict sales of 44 million tons of this input this year.

If this data is confirmed, the delivery of fertilizer by the industries will decrease 4% in relation to the previous year. By 2021, sales had risen 13%.

Wholesale The prices of agricultural products practiced at wholesale this month were stable, but accumulated a high of 8.1% in the year. The data are from the FGV’s IPA (Wholesale Price Index).

what goes up The major pressures in the period came from milk (7.1%), cotton (6.3%) and sugarcane (2.3%). Among the falls, the FGV registered deceleration of the arroba of cattle (3.4%), cassava (7.1) and soybean meal (5.5%).

Diesel This month, according to the IGP-10, the price of diesel rose 8.7% in the wholesale index. This is one of the main costs for the producer during the planting and harvesting period.

Slow down Pork exports dropped to 417,000 tonnes in the first five months of this year, down 8% from the same previous period.

slow down 2 Also falling, revenues fell to US$ 896 million, a decrease of 17% compared to the accumulated from January to May 2021, according to the ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein).