Gasoline and diesel readjustment does not close the gap, say experts

The readjustments in the prices of gasoline and diesel announced this Friday (17) by Petrobras were not enough to eliminate the lag of the products in relation to international quotations, according to experts in the sector.

For Goldman Sachs, the price of gasoline at the state-owned refineries is 27% below import parity, a concept used by Petrobras in its pricing policy to simulate how much it would cost to bring products from the United States.

In the case of diesel, the difference was 11% after the adjustment. “Today’s announcement was not enough to eliminate the difference in relation to import parity”, wrote analysts Bruno Amorim, João Frizo and Guilherme Costa Martins.

According to a projection by Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers), at the beginning of the day the lags in the prices of gasoline and diesel were R$ 0.57 and R$ 1.37 per liter, respectively. The adjustments were R$ 0.20 for gasoline and R$ 1.15 for diesel.

The sector argues that keeping prices below international quotations generates supply risks, since private companies will not import products at a loss. About 25% of the diesel sold in the country comes from abroad.

In a note released this Friday, Petrobras said that it “avoids the transfer of temporary variations that can be reversed in the short term” but defended that the balance with the international market is necessary for the “continuity of supply to the Brazilian market, without risks of shortages”. “.

With the increases, which will take effect from this Saturday (18), Petrobras refineries will sell gasoline at an average price of R$ 4.06 per litre, up 5.2%. Diesel will sell for R$5.61, an increase of 14.2%.

If the other parts of the price —taxes and margins from distributors and service stations— remain stable, the average price of gasoline in the country will jump to around R$7.40. Diesel, on the other hand, costs around R$ 7.50 per litre.

On Wednesday (15), however, Congress concluded the vote on a bill that establishes a ceiling for ICMS rates on fuel, which can reduce the average price of gasoline by R$ 0.657 per liter, according to a projection by consultant Dietmar Schupp. .

The measure has little effect on the price of diesel, as most states already practice rates lower than the established ceiling. And it still depends on the sanction of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the amendment of a resolution by Confaz (National Council for Finance Policy).

Fuel distributors also claim that they need to dump inventories purchased at current ICMS rates before lower-tax products start arriving at service stations.

Next week, Congress debates the so-called PEC for fuels, which authorizes the government to zero federal taxes on gasoline and compensate states that were willing to reduce the ICMS tax on diesel and cooking gas.