Fuel PEC should cost R$ 34.8 billion in election year, says rapporteur

Rapporteur of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) on fuels and social benefits, Senator Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE) said this Friday (24) that the changes in the project represent an increase in expenses of R$ 29.6 billion to BRL 34.8 billion in 2022 – election year. This amount must be outside the spending ceiling.

According to Bezerra, the legal area of ​​the Senate and the AGU (Advocacy-General of the Union) analyze the legality of the measures in the face of barriers imposed by the electoral law. In a preliminary assessment, the rapporteur said that the increase in the value of Auxílio Brasil and the gas voucher should not go against electoral rules, but there is the possibility of triggering a state of emergency in the diesel sector to enable the creation of truck driver assistance.

Auxílio Brasil and the gas voucher are programs that already exist. But the truck driver assistance —to compensate for the rise in fuel prices— would need to be managed this year, which creates even more doubts about the adequacy of the electoral law.

“There is a recognition that the situation in the transport sector, especially in the cargo transport sector, is something of an emergency”, declared the senator. The Senate team has also made informal consultations with other bodies, such as the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and TCU (Union Court of Auditors), to resolve doubts regarding the legality of the proposals.

Even so, Bezerra sees a risk of questioning in the courts, mainly by opposition parties. “Judicialization is almost certain.”

Report published by Sheet This Thursday (23) it showed that the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government wants to give up paying compensation to the states in exchange for them to zero the ICMS rate on diesel and gas by the end of the year. This was the main measure of the original version of the PEC for fuels, which had an impact of BRL 29.6 billion on public accounts.

With this money, the government and Congress are negotiating to increase the minimum amount of Auxílio Brasil until the end of the year to R$ 600 (currently R$ 400), increase the value of the gas voucher and create a truck driver allowance of R$ 1,000.

UNDERSTAND THE EXPECTED COSTS

In addition to this package, Bezerra is studying using part of the resources to pay for free people over 65 years old on public transport buses. This would reduce the pressure on companies operating in the segment.

Data presented by the rapporteur indicate that the increase in the installments of the gas voucher would have a cost of R$ 1.5 billion by the end of the year. In the case of truck driver assistance, the expense would be BRL 5.4 billion for 900,000 self-employed workers. Compensation for the gratuity of the elderly in public transport would represent an expense of R$ 2.5 billion.

The most expensive measure would be the increase in the share of Auxílio Brasil, with an estimated cost of R$ 21.6 billion until December. Bolsonaro’s campaign is betting on this initiative to improve his performance in electoral polls.

The design presented by Bezerra also includes the use of R$ 3.8 billion for the ethanol sector – this measure was already in the original version of the PEC.

The senator is still studying a mechanism to eliminate the Auxílio Brasil waiting list, but the proposal should not take effect in 2022 due to lack of resources.

Despite the government’s willingness to inject more resources into Auxílio Brasil, the amount calculated by the rapporteur could not be used to eliminate the program’s waiting list, as this would be a permanent expense, with an impact in the coming years, not only in 2022.

as showed the Sheetin May there was a waiting list of 764,500 families already qualified for the program, but who do not receive the benefit due to lack of funds within the spending ceiling — a rule that limits the advance of expenses to the variation of inflation.