Allies of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) admit that the complaints against the now ex-president of Caixa, Pedro Guimarães, are bad for the president, but assess that the electoral impact will be small after the former ally of the first hour leaves office.
The reading of people close to Bolsonaro, from the so-called more ideological wing and from the center, is that it was possible to isolate the case, since Guimarães left the presidency of the bank the day after the revelation of the harassment allegations by the website Metrópoles, on Tuesday. (28).
The portal report states that at least five Caixa employees say they have been victims of sexual harassment by Guimarães, who has become the target of investigation by the Federal Public Ministry.
The accusations account for unwanted touches, inappropriate invitations, among other things. THE Sheetan employee reported being pulled by the neck and being in shock after the episode.
The ideal, for strategists linked to the president, was that he would have fired the Caixa executive — and not let him present a letter of resignation — and provided solidarity with women victims of harassment to avoid the image of condescension, which did not happen.
A wing of the campaign tries to justify Bolsonaro’s silence as a way of not gloating over the ally, nor his family, who would have been very exposed with the episode. Guimarães’ wife accompanied him to a Caixa event on Wednesday morning, which caused embarrassment to government officials.
In any case, the campaign believes that Bolsonaro acted quickly, guaranteeing the departure of Guimarães in a short period and appointing a woman, Daniella Marques, to succeed him.
Allies of the president also believe that it is possible to hush up the case of Guimarães on the grounds that Bolsonaro did not condone the accusations against him.
Specialists in polls of intention to vote gave the PL the diagnosis that the president should neither gain nor lose votes with the episode.
In addition, the political assessment is that there would be no way to try to link the complaints to some conduct of the president himself, since they would have been attitudes taken exclusively by the Caixa executive.
The same cannot be said about the investigations into suspected corruption against Milton Ribeiro (former Minister of Education).
This investigation, for members of Bolsonaro’s campaign, has the potential to harm him even more, as it may come to the conclusion that there were illicit acts practiced within the government itself, thus overturning one of the main discourses that the campaign planned to use to to wear Lula down: the fight against corruption.
With Bolsonaro’s silence regarding the allegations against the former president of Caixa, it was up to the president’s son and his campaign coordinator, Flávio Bolsonaro, to say that the case is “inadmissible”, in an interview with the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo. .
Planalto’s operation to stop wear and tear began on Tuesday night
The operation to try to stop the wear and tear with the episode was mounted on Tuesday night (28).
Bolsonaro was informed about the allegations and called the president of Caixa for a conversation at Palácio da Alvorada.
At the time, the president warned the ally that he would need to leave office to avoid contaminating him.
Campaign members advised Bolsonaro to act quickly, fire Guimarães and release a note or a video saying he repudiates harassment of women, sympathize with the alleged victims of the then president of Caixa and affirm that the investigation into the allegations would continue.
The president rejected this advice. Instead, he gave the ally the possibility of delivering a letter of resignation to the government in which he pleads innocence, something that was read as a mistake by campaign strategists.
On another front, Bolsonaro called on Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) on Tuesday night and asked for indications to replace Guimarães.
The name of Daniella Marques, right-hand man of the Minister of Economy, came up at that moment. Still on the morning of this Wednesday (29), she went to the Planalto Palace, and the choice was defined.
PT Summit bets on losses for Bolsonaro
Members of the PT campaign leadership believe that the case contributes to further scare the female electorate away from the president’s purview and are betting that there will, yes, be losses.
Women are one of the main calluses in Bolsonaro’s reelection project, as it is a group in which he has high rejection rates.
In the latest Datafolha poll, Lula registered 48% of voting intentions in the first round, compared to 27% for Bolsonaro in the general population. According to the survey, the distance between the opponents is greater between them: the PT comes to score 49%, compared to 23% of the current president.
Rejection of Bolsonaro is high in the female electorate. According to the survey, 56% of women who earn more than 5 minimum wages reject voting for the president, 56% among those who earn between 2 and 5 minimum wages and 60% among those who earn less than 2 minimum wages.
The president’s campaign plans to carry out actions specifically aimed at women, in an attempt to reduce the repulsion of the president. The idea is for him to participate in conversation circles and explore the image of his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, to attract this audience.
Thus, having negative news related to this segment is not good for the president, especially in relation to a name that was considered close to the president. Guimarães participated in the president’s live broadcasts and was constantly quoted by him.
Caixa has even become a kind of showcase for public policies for the government. The bank operates Bolsonaro’s main social program, Auxílio Brasil.
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