Driven by diesel sales, fuel consumption in Brazil grew 6.1% in May, compared to the same month of the previous year, when the country was still suffering the effects of social isolation. In comparison with 2019, before the pandemic, the increase is 1.9%.
Faced with the risks of a lack of diesel in the international market, the ANP (National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels) proposed this Thursday (30) to increase the mandatory stocks of the product, to guarantee the supply of stations at the end of the year.
Considering the first five months of 2022, Brazil consumed 56.7 billion liters of fuel, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2021. The volume is 0.6% higher than that verified in the same period of 2019. The increase occurs in a scenario of price escalation, which has already overthrown two presidents of Petrobras this year.
Diesel sales grew 6.2% compared to May 2021. Compared to the same month of 2019, the increase is 11.2%. Essential for the transport of goods and agricultural production, the product has not suffered as much impact from the pandemic.
With the sanctions on Russian production and the increase in consumption for power generation in countries that suffer from the interruption of Russian gas sales, the diesel market today is experiencing a scenario of tightness between supply and demand.
“The objective of the agency is to act in a preventive way”, said, in a note, the ANP. The proposal is that companies responsible for a market share above 8% keep enough stocks for nine days of sales.
The rule applies only to diesel S-10, less polluting and mandatory in urban centers, which today accounts for 61% of fuel consumption in the country. With larger stocks, the ANP believes that the country could survive 45 days without imports.
The ANP proposes that the measure take effect between the beginning of September and the end of November, “because these are the months of greatest national historical demand, due to the agricultural harvest period, and the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico region, United States , from where most Brazilian imports originate”.
At the moment, the agency guarantees that the supply “occurs with regularity”. The risk of product shortages is one of the arguments used by the sector to justify the parity of domestic prices with international quotations.
A damming of prices in the country, say Petrobras and fuel distributors, makes it impossible for private imports to supply the national market. Brazilian refineries have the capacity to produce around three quarters of the volume consumed in the country.
Even with prices hitting successive records during the year, gasoline sales grew 13.4% compared to May 2021, to 3.4 billion liters. Compared to May 2019, before the pandemic, the increase is 9.1%.
But ANP statistics indicate that this increase reflects the substitution of hydrous ethanol, which also reached record prices during the year. In May, biofuel sales fell 19.1% compared to May 2021. Compared to the same month in 2019, the drop is even greater: 30%.
Adding gasoline and hydrated ethanol, fuel consumption by light vehicles in the country is still lower than in the pre-pandemic period. In the first five months of 2022, there were 22.9 billion liters, against 24.5 billion in the same period in 2019.
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