Economist Fabio Bentes, from CNC (National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism), assesses that the performance of Black Friday this year signals a weaker Christmas for commerce than initially expected.
“Black Friday works like a thermometer,” he says. This year, the day was marked by empty stores and lukewarm online deals, a scenario quite different from other years, when scenes of crowds in establishments spilled over into the streets.
In September, CNC had estimated a rise of 3.8%, in real terms (discounted for inflation), for Christmas sales in 2021, compared to last year. That projection is likely to be revised downwards soon, according to Bentes.
In 2021, the entity estimates a drop of 6.5% for Black Friday sales in Brazil in real terms. It is the first projected downturn in five years, since 2016.
“Inflation is the great villain. It is the main responsible for the drop projection”, indicates Bentes. “With inflation, interest rates have been rising for the consumer”, he completes.
There were nearly 5.4 million online orders until 4 pm, according to monitoring by Neotrust, a company specializing in virtual sales data. The volume is practically the same as registered in the same period last year. Billing was R$3.7 billion, 5% above that recorded in the same period in 2020.
The preliminary result, however, does not consider the effect of inflation. In October, the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) increased 1.25%, the highest for the month since 2002. In 12 months, the accumulated reached 10.67%. It is the biggest brand since January 2016 (10.71%).
This Friday (26), the BC (Central Bank) reported that the average interest rate in Brazil for loans rose 2.2 points in October, compared to September, to 32.8% per year. It is the highest level since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, when the percentage was at 33.3% per year.
Bentes explains that, in addition to having reduced consumer purchasing power in recent months, inflationary pressure has also increased retail operating costs. The impact on stores challenged more aggressive discounts this Black Friday, he said.
In 2021, one of the peculiarities that caught the attention of analysts was the interest on the part of consumers in promotions of basic items, such as food, beverages and hygiene products. They appeared in reports from the first days of the Reclame Aqui promotion.
According to Bentes, this search can be associated, in part, with the economic crisis. Is that, in times of tightness in the pocket, the consumer tries to find more affordable prices for basic necessities, while spending on higher value goods is held back.
“What is behind this is the consumer’s fear of compromising their income even more with installments. They know that if they step on the accelerator now, the coming months could be difficult. The inflation scenario will not be reversed in the short term. “
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