Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: How to prevent the omicron variant from causing disgrace in Brazil

In Brazil and almost all over the world, the epidemic began with the arrival of a handful of infected travelers. With the exception of rare immunological cases, the population was defenseless against the coronavirus. There were no barriers other than masks and movement restrictions or crowds.

When the omicron variant arrives, it will encounter a very different biological landscape. More than 62% of the Brazilian population is fully vaccinated. About 75% took dose 1, and some of these people may have “completed” their immunization because they were also infected.

It seems like a reason for us to be less restless. Just seems.

Suppose the new animal dribbles the vaccine. How many infected visitors can this supermutant coronavirus bring us? Few. But half a dozen of them can bring disgrace.

We don’t have border controls, and Brazil can be a tropical vacation paradise for anti-vaccination freaks, because it’s “Bolsonaro, dammit!” More on this later.

Most importantly and first of all, think about the older cousins ​​of the omicron variant, who again spread pain and death across the rich world. In Germany (68% complete vaccination), the number of deaths per million inhabitant is now 2.7 —in Brazil, it is 1 per million. In Belgium, 75% vaccination, 3.2 deaths per million. Austria, 65% vaccinated, 5.3 per million. UK, 68% vaccinated, 2 per million.

In the US, there are 3.4 deaths per million, the country is sitting on vaccines and with a complete immunization rate of only 58%, an embarrassment even greater when you think that there are no doses for those people who barely have a gourd of thin food, someone who bandage them or make them a decent shelter from the harshness of the weather.

The epidemiological situation in Brazil is not that of this rich world, because there was a devastation of infections around here and we took vaccines later —their effect is still strong and we are receiving reinforcements.

But, with or without omicron, we have to run with the vaccination, look for those without injections in their homes or schools and avoid crowding with puffs in the snouts without masks, as occurs in soccer fields. From alpha to omega, any variant is still a threat.

Is it possible to stop the omicron at borders? As much as the old variants: little. But it would be convenient to demand a passport for the vaccination of travelers, which goes against the ignorant militancy of Jair Bolsonaro.

The number of international arrivals at airports in Brazil dropped. In October 2019, there were about 939 thousand. In October 2021, about 263 thousand. About 35% of these travelers are non-residents (according to data from 2018 and 2019, the most recent). It is much less traveler. The probability that they are infected is very small. It would be even lower if they were vaccinated (the vaccine significantly lowers the probability of transmission). We have to play in firm boom.

As a passport is not required, there is also adverse selection (attracting crazy people, idiots and perverts). Where can you sunbathe, without a vaccine, spend little (the real is worthless) and, for now, in a place with fewer deaths in Covid than in a very rich country? In Brazil.

Scientists still have no way of knowing how much damage the micron can wreak. Epidemiological data are lacking (how many contaminated, how long, how severe, etc.). They are still examining it to try to estimate, for now in the laboratory, whether the virus is bypassing the vaccine. Some researchers speculate not. When in doubt, it is better to prevent the ineffective.

Like? Making the obvious treaty with disregard: vaccine, lots of testing, mask and passports. The average humanity is interested in gossip and novelty. Facts cause boredom or revolt.