Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro strikes back, should score goals in August, Lula naps

In July, the inflation rate should be negative. That is, the IPCA may decrease by almost 1% this month. Annual inflation would fall little, to close to 10%. The food shortage would continue at a horrible 16% per year. The drop in fuel prices will make up for a still bad and widespread inflation.

But Bolsonarismo will hit the bass drum, celebrating this first move of the counterattack that started now. Should score some goals in the August or September polls. Maybe not many points, but enough to avoid the risk of defeat in the first round. With this move by Auxílio Brasil etc., he should get out of the stalemate he was in just a fortnight ago.

In addition, on July 31st, Bolsonarista street demonstrations begin, which should culminate in the apotheotic re-edition of the September 7th coup’s anniversary, now more disguised. “Disguised” in terms, as the campaign to demoralize the polls and intimidate the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and the Supreme Court was resumed, an offensive with great military support.

In the meantime, the opposition, in short Lula da Silva (PT) and its members, are playing idle, hoping that inflation, hunger and a past of recent crimes will be enough to keep the rejection of Jair Bolsonaro at around 55%. There is no greater political movement or conversation in order to contain the Bolsonarist counterattack.

As predicted, banks and other companies in the industry revise upward their growth estimates for 2022, which go from around 1.5% to the 2% notch. More importantly, they soften their predictions that the number of jobs would start to grow slightly in the second half of the year.

The main reason for the revisions is the money from the electoral package, the PEC “Kamikaze” or the “Billions – fuel tax reduction and various aids.

There is a very remote possibility that part of the fuel drop will be reversed because of complaints from governors in court. Even more unlikely is the PEC Kamikaze to fall in the Chamber.

The Supreme Court is already intimidated by the Bolsonarist grins –​people there say they don’t want to “intensify” the conflict. Almost the entire Congress has given its approval to electoral fraud. The opposition took a dribble by the last minute change of the embezzlement package, which went from the stupidity of even greater fuel subsidies to direct spending on the poor and the like. There will be no CPI from the MEC.

The opposition sometimes holds a ball because it has no political strategy or proposal for a national agreement for economic and democratic reconstruction. Nor does it have a program (of political, electoral or other combat). The campaign is still made up of Lula, “putting the picture of the old man again”, and the disgust that part of the country took from Bolsonaro.

In a little while, the dirty digital Bolsonar campaign begins, which was having organizational problems and internal disputes. There will be a business package.

To recap: from July onwards, the Bolsonarista shock mass marches begin. Bolsonaro will hitch a ride on the expenses of the official commemoration of the Bicentennial of Independence.

At the beginning of August, there is news of negative July inflation and still resistant employment indicators. Between the end of July and August, Auxílio Brasil begins to flow, which must have at least one second payment until the first round.

In theory, it will be two months of counterattack. What will the opposition do? Waiting for a financial disaster in the world economy to arrive here? That the people don’t buy embezzlement at face price?

More likely, for now, is that Bolsonaro will score some goals, some saving points in the August or September polls. At the very least, buy time for blows.