Opinion – Ronaldo Lemos: Fighting denialism to save democracy

This column was written for the #scienceinelections campaign, which celebrates Science Month. In June, columnists give up their space to reflect on the role of science in the reconstruction of Brazil. The writer is Rose Marie Santini, professor at the School of Communication at UFRJ and director of Netlab – Laboratory for Internet Studies and Social Networks.

When for the first time a black hole was recorded in the heart of the Milky Way, as in the case of the photo of the celestial body Sagittarius A*, the fascination and admiration of the public was immediate. When it is discovered that the burning of fossil fuels causes climate change, or that contamination by a lethal virus can only be avoided with masks and social distancing, the response of politicians and the public tends to be much less favorable. In Brazil, we have watched, catatonic, many scientists and experts who have suffered aggression and threats, becoming targets of hate speech and conspiracy theories.

The covid-19 pandemic perfectly illustrates the intertwined link between politics and science. Certain political arguments are more persuasive when associated with a certain public perception of science. We are facing a war of narratives that polarizes the population, and in which questioning or denying scientific consensus is a central strategy for manipulating the masses.

Misinformation about the pandemic was disseminated on social media, but its most perverse effects occurred in the real world, with fatal consequences. Heads of state such as Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro have amplified false or inaccurate information: a recent study points out that Trump was the biggest disseminator of disinformation in the world during the pandemic – and Bolsonaro, his main puppet.

But what would be the interest in spreading lies in the face of one of the biggest health crises in human history? The answer is not new, but it is nonetheless astonishing: the fabrication of doubt for political use.

In a crisis, the dispute of public opinion is fundamental. And it is not for nothing at this time that the questioning of the legitimacy of scientific discoveries is at the center of the debate. Scientific denialism has the function of distorting the public perception of reality and dividing society. Polarization intensifies hostility, opens space for exclusionary actions and allows the advancement of an authoritarian agenda.

The ultimate objective is to undermine trust in experts and scientists to destabilize democratic institutions, spreading lies about the vulnerability of electronic voting machines or manufacturing fake electoral surveys whose purpose is to provide input for a certain group to question the vulnerability of the polls and the validity of the election. – if the election result does not please them.

Disinformation has become a very profitable market, dominated by highly organized actors. According to a study by the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), false information is 70% more likely to be shared than true information. Producers of disinformation maximize short-term profits by attracting users to clicks and shares.

It is estimated that in 2021, websites that repeatedly published fake news earned $2.6 billion in ad revenue. And denialism is also part of this profitable industry: a recent analysis shows that the main mobilizers of the online anti-vaccination campaign accumulate annual revenues of 35 million dollars, and their 62 million followers generate revenue of more than a billion dollars a year for the big platforms.

But disinformation is not just a problem of economic incentives or ideological interests. It touches the entire connective tissue of democracy: if citizens do not trust institutions, are deceived, or do not want to participate in the democratic process, democracy is gravely threatened.

In an election year, facing the scourge of false narratives is fundamental to guaranteeing voters the choice of the future we want.