The combination of persistent inflationary pressure with the prospect of a strong slowdown in the major global economies, added to an uncertain domestic environment, makes market agents very cautious with the development of the macroeconomic framework.
“There is no reason to be optimistic in the short term with the economic dynamics of the most diverse countries”, said Daniel Leichsenring, chief economist of asset manager Verde Asset Management, during a virtual event promoted by Icatu this Tuesday (19).
On the local scene, Leichsenring said that the proximity of the elections and the signals that have been transmitted by the two main candidates in the dispute do not bring any relief from an economic point of view.
The chief economist at Verde stated that the maneuvers in fiscal policy, most recently with the approval of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that extends benefits to three months before the election, is a point of concern on investors’ radar.
“The rupture of the fiscal and electoral institutions that we had in the last month, and that has been going on since last year, is an extraordinary business”, said Leichsenring, who also mentioned the meeting promoted on Monday (18) by the president. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with ambassadors to “preventively question the electoral process.”
The scenario leaves the country in a “situation in which the alternatives that are found there are very bad, each with its own characteristics.”
The PT government, said the economist, produced the “biggest growth catastrophe and the biggest recession known in Brazil since GDP began to be measured in 1901.”
He also said that the campaign program of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s candidacy, and the statements that have been made by the PT candidate, “are clearly a return to all the pillars that resulted in the tragedy of growth.”
“From a strictly economic point of view, it’s a throwback to the past in an important way that the country just doesn’t have the fiscal leeway to put up with.”
Leichsenring also said that, if the PT government confirms the favoritism indicated in the voting intentions polls, and follows the economic policy that it has indicated so far, “it will very likely go wrong, with recession, higher inflation, unemployment, real income.”
Global economies will still get worse, while inflation will remain under pressure
In addition to the country’s own challenges, the manager’s chief economist pointed out that, in the international scenario, the economic dynamics are not the most positive either.
According to him, the major global economies have not yet reached the worst moment in terms of the pace of economic activity, which the expert estimates should happen at the turn of 2022 to 2023, at the same time that the inflation data have not started to show clear signs. cooling signs.
“The world is currently going through what is perhaps the height of the process of disruption of production chains and the shock of costs and also with a disorientation of commodity chains”, stated Leichsenring.
He added that, in the global context, we are going through a “very particular and perverse combination of several countries heading towards a deep deceleration and, in some cases, towards a recession trajectory, with a very high inflationary process and very far from saying that it is thing of the past.”
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