“Russia is blackmailing us. Russia uses energy as a weapon. Therefore, either a major or a total disruption of Russian gas supplies, Europe must be ready,” said the Commission President
THE full stop of Russian gas to Europe is one “possible scenario”said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, during a press conference she gave today from Brussels.
The Commission proposes that all EU member states reduce, on a voluntary basis, the natural gas consumption by 15%, from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, in relation to their average consumption in the period 2016-2021. However, this reduction will become binding for all member states, in case the Commission declares a state of energy alert in the EU, explained Ursula von der Leyen.
“Russia is blackmailing us. Russia uses energy as a weapon. Therefore, either in the event of a major or total disruption of Russian gas supplies, Europe must be ready,” said the President of the Commission.
Asked whether EU member states are willing to approve horizontal cuts (15%) in natural gas, Ursula von der Leyen replied that all countries need to understand how interconnected they are with each other. “We have to stay united and show solidarity with gas as well. It is in our interest to reduce consumption before a possible significant disruption from Russia,” he said.
“Gazprom turned out to be a complete unreliable supplier. It is not predictable what he will do,” von der Leyen then said, adding: “We are preparing for the worst case scenario.” She explained that the state of energy alert will be signaled in the EU, after a drastic or total reduction of Russian gas. In this case, the reduction of natural gas consumption will become binding for all countries, he stressed.
In order to establish the target of reducing natural gas demand by 15%, the Commission is proposing a new legislative tool – a new regulation to the Council (Member States), based on Article 122 of the Treaty. The new regulation will enable the Commission to declare, after consultation with the Member States, a “Union Alert” in the event of a serious risk of gas shortages and to make the gas demand reduction target mandatory in all member states. The regulation requires approval by a qualified majority of EU countries. The aim is to be approved at the extraordinary Council of EU Energy Ministers to be held in Brussels on July 26. However, some European governments do not agree, demanding that the reduction in consumption be commensurate with energy dependence on Russia.
The Commission estimates that if EU countries act in a timely and coordinated manner, the negative impact of the reduction in natural gas consumption on GDP will be on average 0.6%. However, if the EU is slow to act and Russia abruptly and completely cuts off the gas flow, the negative impact on EU GDP is estimated to be between 0.9%-1.5%.
The Commission suggests measures that governments can take to limit the use of natural gas, including incentives to industries that reduce gas use, but also limits on heating and cooling temperatures in public buildings. Governments will also have to decide the order in which they will force industries to close in the event of a supply emergency.
Households qualify as ‘protected consumers’ under EU rules and will be protected from restrictions. “Existing EU security of supply rules guarantee that protected customers, i.e. households and essential social services such as hospitals and schools, are exempt from any gas rationing measures,” the Commission stresses. The measures proposed to save natural gas consumption are focused on industry. However, everyone can contribute to saving gas. “Managing energy savings across all sectors of the economy today will be much less expensive than cutting industrial production hastily tomorrow,” the Commission stresses.
Member States will have to update their national emergency plans by the end of September to show how they intend to meet the reduction target and will have to report to the Commission on progress every two months.
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