Climate roller coaster affects gaucho farmer in pandemic

Throughout the pandemic, agriculture in Rio Grande do Sul experienced a kind of roller coaster caused by the weather.

After a bitter drought in early 2020, the sector resumed crop productivity the following year, but again faced an intensified drought at the start of 2022. The strong variations worry local producers, who regret the uncertainties about plantations in recent years.

This is the case of Elton Widthauper, 55, resident of the municipality of Miraguaí (445 km from Porto Alegre), in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul. Earlier this year, he lost pasture and almost all of the corn planted on three hectares of land, which made it difficult for dairy cattle to feed.

Widthauper usually sells 4,000 to 5,000 liters of milk per month, but the volume fell by half in the first half due to the drought. The cultivation of sugarcane, the basis for the production of molasses, has not escaped the impacts of the lack of rain either, he says.

“This year’s drought was the biggest I can remember. It was terrible,” he says. “Now that it’s raining again, we’re starting to catch up on business.” In his view, the adverse effects of weather on the countryside seem to have gotten “stronger” in recent years.

A similar perception is reported by rural producer Fernanda Luisa Sell, 31, from the municipality of Derrubadas (480 km from Porto Alegre), also in the Northwest of the state. “In recent years, it seems that we are feeling more [os efeitos do clima] than before.”

With the drought that hit the South region, Fernanda and her husband lost in 2022 a considerable part of the soybean and corn plantations in an area of ​​ten hectares.

Vegetable cultivation and milk production were also hit hard by the lack of rain in the summer, she said. The drought that gained strength in early 2022 was the most intense the farmer says she has ever experienced.

“Recovering the loss is difficult. Grain production is a reserve for the whole year. With the frustration of the summer crop, we spend the rest of the months with a tighter budget”, he reports.

The drought that hit the state between the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 is associated by experts with the La Niña phenomenon. The climatic event is responsible for affecting the distribution of rainfall, impacting the circulation of winds and humidity.

In the country, the phenomenon usually causes drought in the South. La Niña is characterized by the cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Agrometeorologist Marco Antônio dos Santos, founding partner of the consultancy Rural Clima, avoids linking events like this to climate change experienced by the planet. However, he says that facts such as global warming and deforestation are already existing threats and that bring a scenario of more difficulties for the coming years.

“Global warming does not interfere so much in a phenomenon like La Niña, but it can make events such as droughts and droughts to be potentiated”, he says. “To say that deforestation can influence rainfall is a fact”, he adds.

Agrometeorology professor Denise Cybis Fontana, from UFRGS (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul), makes a similar assessment. For her, climate change points to a change in variability, the periodic oscillations in the climate.

“The issue is that we are not managing to deal well with the current climate variability. The problem tends to grow. We need to pay more attention to the conditions of the planet,” he says.

Biologist Francisco Milanez, former president and current director of Agapan (Gaucha Association for the Protection of the Natural Environment), says that, although phenomena such as La Niña are part of the natural cycle, climate change and deforestation in the country are already causing more difficulties .

“People talk a lot about the worst drought in a given period, but the big problem is the frequency. This is already increasing”, he says.

Drought generates effect that goes beyond the gate

Periods of lack of rain have direct and indirect effects on the state’s economy, points out researcher Rodrigo Feix, from the DEE (Department of Economics and Statistics), linked to the Planning, Governance and Management Department of the State of Rio Grande do Sul.

In addition to the damage felt in the crops, the lower income of the farmers creates an additional obstacle for the sales of commerce and industry, especially in smaller cities and more dependent on the primary sector, says Feix.

He points out that agriculture represents 9% to 10% of the gross value added to the economy of Rio Grande do Sul. In Brazil, the share is close to 5%. “There is a systemic effect of the drought on the local economy, direct and indirect”, he indicates.

Results of the Gaucho GDP (Gross Domestic Product), calculated by DEE, illustrate this relationship.

In 2020, agriculture fell 29.5% in Rio Grande do Sul, with the effect of losses in the first semester, a period that concentrates the harvest of crops such as corn and soybeans. The Gaucho GDP as a whole fell by 6.8% in 2020, influenced by the combination of drought and pandemic.

In 2021, there was a resumption in crops, and agriculture jumped 67% in the year. GDP, in turn, increased by 10.4%, according to DEE.

In the first quarter of 2022, the most recent interval with available data, the scenario returned to red. Amid the impacts of the new drought, agriculture collapsed 41.1% compared to the same quarter last year, while GDP fell by 4.7%.

There was a drop in production in soybean (-53.5%), corn (-31.1%), rice (-10.6%), tobacco (-15%) and grapes (-23.4%). The expectation is that the effects of the drought will also be felt in the second quarter.

“Without a doubt, it was a kind of roller coaster in the period of the pandemic,” says Feix.

“In 2022, the drought occurred with higher production costs. Farmer revenues fell, and costs rose”, adds the researcher, referring to the high prices of inputs such as fertilizers and fuels.​

According to him, the impacts of the lack of rain on the state’s economy in 2020 and 2022 can be compared to the drought seen in the state in 2012. That year, agriculture fell by 32.4%, and GDP shrank by 2.1%. .

Throughout the decade, there were even other episodes of water scarcity, but with less force, points out Feix.

“The intensity of the drought this year was greater in the western half, in the northwest of the state. In some municipalities, we had productivity close to zero”, points out agronomist Elder Dal Prá, advisor to the technical board of Emater-RS.

He points out that around 80% of agriculture in Rio Grande do Sul is made up of establishments that are part of the so-called family farming – that is, smaller properties with a workforce essentially made up of relatives. “The impact of the weather was severe”, says the technician.