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Thursday, August 11, 2022
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Opinion – Grain in Grain: Do you want to know how to get the Mega-Sena prize without relying on luck?

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This past Thursday, a Mega-Sena gambler won BRL 5,543,989.92. It takes a lot of luck to win this game. However, there is a way to circumvent this luck, with some effort and patience.

The probability of a bettor winning at Mega-Sena is 1/50,063,860.

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Evaluating this number in isolation is very difficult.

As there is always someone winning, we believe that the probability of winning is greater than the number presented.

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I will provide a data to relativize.

The probability of an individual being struck by lightning is 1/1,000,000. According to the National Institute for Space Research (INPE): “if the person is in an open area under a strong storm, this chance can increase by up to 1/1,000”.

Do you understand now how unlikely you are to win the Mega-Sena and how much easier it is for you to suffer from a lightning strike?

So let’s go to the simplest to become a millionaire.

Just add R$ 471 per month for 40 years at an interest rate of 1% per month and you will have this Mega-Sena prize. And this interest rate is lower than the current Selic rate.

One might argue that this strategy would take too long.

Whoever says that didn’t understand the probability of winning the Mega-Sena, that is, of becoming a millionaire playing.

Chances are you’ll never win by playing your entire life. Relying on luck and continuing to play will probably take you much longer than your 40s.

Would you rather be more certain or doubtful about your financial future?

So don’t waste your luck on something the odds are against you.

Create an investment plan, be patient and the result will be more certain.

Michael Viriato is an investment advisor and founding partner of Investor’s House

(Follow and like De Grão em Grão on social networks. Instagram.)

If you have questions or suggestions for topics that you would like to see commented on here, please feel free to send them by email.

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