Datafolha: Bolsonaro advances among income ‘vulnerable’, and Lula reacts among ‘insurance’

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has advanced in the last month among the most “lulista” segment of the electorate. Voting intentions for the current head of the Planalto have increased numerically among the so-called vulnerable, those with low income and financial instability, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, from the end of July.

Lula (PT), on the other hand, surpassed his rival in the portion of the population classified as safe, with greater income and stability. All these variations, however, were within the poll’s margins of error for the two groups — three percentage points for the vulnerable and five for the insurance.

If previously Bolsonaro lost 57% to 19% among the vulnerable, now the difference in the score has reduced to 54% to 24%. About half of this slice receives Auxílio Brasil or lives with someone benefiting from the income transfer program, which had its value increased from R$400 to R$600 in the period.

The PT, who was behind in the wealthiest part, with 35% against 38% of the opponent, now leads with 40% against 33%.

This group concentrates more men, a segment in which the former president has also recently reversed the game. The trend had already been indicated by the cuts in family income in the last electoral poll, which in total showed Lula with 47% and Bolsonaro with 29%, with a margin of two points.

The survey was carried out with 2,556 people on the 27th and 28th of July, therefore, before André Janones (Avante) left the dispute.

The difference now is that Datafolha added to this data not only how much the voter earns monthly, but also their type of occupation, offering a more complete analysis of their profile —the two variables have a great influence on the vote, according to the institute.

The president’s recent move is more significant because the vulnerable make up more than a third of the electorate (35%), while insurance accounts for a fifth (20%). In the analysis, three other groups are also considered.

The so-called resilients, who, like the vulnerable, earn up to two minimum wages a month, but are financially stable, prefer Lula comfortably and have not had a significant fluctuation. They add up to 17% of voters, a slice that has a margin of error of up to five points.

The so-called supporters, with unstable but higher incomes (above two salaries), are now divided between the two candidates. In the previous month, PT was numerically ahead, with 42% against 37%, but now both have 38%. This segment corresponds to 18% of the total and has a margin of five points.

The superinsurers, stable and even richer (above five minimum wages), represent 8% of the electorate and are the only ones who still prefer Bolsonaro. The president, however, remained at the same level (42%), while Lula reduced the difference by oscillating from 30% to 34% — the margin is seven points.

Regarding the third way, insurance and superinsurance are the most sympathetic to the two main alternative candidates to polarization. Ciro Gomes (PDT) goes to 11% in the first group, and Simone Tebet (MDB) scores 7% in the second, her highest score in this cut of the survey.

To reach these segments, Datafolha separated voters into three strata. The economically stable (registered wage earners, civil servants, self-employed professionals, retirees), the unstable active (unregistered wage earners, self-employed, freelancers, unemployed looking for a job) and the non-active (students, housewives and unemployed not looking for a job) .

The opinion of the five groups considered in the analysis also varies on other points questioned in the survey. The vulnerable, for example, started to better evaluate the Bolsonaro government in the last month – the president’s disapproval fluctuated from 50% to 46%, coming close to the general average.

This segment is also the one that most says that the amount of food was insufficient at home in recent months (48%, against 33% overall) and the one that most cites health as the main problem in the country (23%, against 20%). . Among insurance, the index of those who mention education (15%) stands out.

Understand the categories created by Datafolha

1. Vulnerable

• How much they earn: up to 2 minimum wages per family, with unstable income
• Who they are: The group is mostly female, with an average age of 39 years, and has above-average rates of non-educated, unemployed, Northeastern and non-white. Half receive or live with someone benefiting from Auxílio Brasil
• Who prefer: Lula (54%)
• Share of the electorate: 35%
• Margin of error in the survey: 3 percentage points

2. Resilient

• How much they earn: up to 2 minimum wages per family, with stable income
• Who they are: The group is also mostly female, with an average age of 50 years, and has above-average rates of people with elementary education and retirees
• Who they prefer: Lula (53%)
• Share of the electorate: 20%
• Margin of error in the survey: 5 percentage points

3. Supported

• How much they earn: above 2 minimum wages per family, with unstable income
• Who they are: The group is mostly male, with an average age of 37 years, includes those who are not economically active, such as students, and has above-average rates of whites, with high school or higher education and residents of the Southeast
• Who prefers: Lula and Bolsonaro tie (38%)
• Share of the electorate: 18%
• Margin of error in the survey: 5 percentage points

4. Insurance

• How much they earn: from 2 to 5 minimum wages per family, with stable income
• Who they are: The group is mostly male, with an average age of 45 years, and has above-average rates of higher education, whites, residents of the Southeast and South, registered salaried workers and civil servants
• Who do you prefer: Lula (40%)
• Share of the electorate: 20%
• Margin of error in the survey: 5 percentage points

5. Superinsurance

• How much do they earn: above 5 minimum wages per family, with stable income
• Who they are: The group is mostly male and has rates well above the average of higher education, whites, residents of capital cities and the South, registered employees, entrepreneurs, civil servants and retirees
• Who prefer: Bolsonaro (42%)
• Share of the electorate: 8%
• Margin of error in the survey: 7 percentage points