The Brazilian economy retreated 0.1% in the third quarter of 2021, compared to the three immediately previous months, according to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. The result was released this Thursday (2nd) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The number came in slightly below financial market expectations. Analysts consulted by Bloomberg agency projected null variation (0%).
This is the second consecutive fall in the indicator, which renews signs of a loss of breath in economic activity. In the second quarter, the fall in GDP was revised from 0.1% to 0.4%.
The performance takes place amidst a context of escalating inflation, higher interest rates and weaknesses in the labor market, which make it difficult for economic activity to recover.
According to the IBGE, GDP is at the same level recorded between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, the pre-pandemic period. On the other hand, it is 3.4% below the highest point in the historical series, reached in the first quarter of 2014.
Even with the 1.1% rise in the services sector, which accounts for about 70% of the national GDP, the result of the third quarter was pulled down by the 8% drop in agriculture and the 9.8% decline in exports of goods and services, says the IBGE.
The sharp downturn in agriculture reflects the end of the soybean harvest, which also impacted exports. The harvest is more concentrated in the first two quarters of the year.
Industry, in turn, was stagnant (0%). According to the IBGE, the factories feel the increase in the cost of raw materials in the pandemic and the effects of the energy crisis, which raises production costs.
Compared to the third quarter of 2020, GDP grew 4%. In 12 months, the increase was 3.9%. In the accumulated result for this year, until September, the indicator increased by 5.7%.
Projections indicate that the Brazilian GDP should end the year 2021 with growth, largely associated with the depressed base of comparison — in 2020, the pandemic caused a sharp drop in the indicator.
The point is that, given the recent signs of economic weakness, the scenario was more complicated for 2022, the year of elections, analysts indicate.
According to the Focus bulletin, released by the BC (Central Bank), the financial market projects a 4.78% increase in GDP for 2021. The estimate has been revised downwards in recent weeks. In 2022, the increase should be reduced to 0.58%, according to the publication. There are already financial institutions that predict a fall next year.
The worsening of economic expectations comes on the back of inflationary pressure, which reduces the purchasing power of consumers, and the increase in uncertainties in the fiscal area.
Analysts’ doubts about the direction of public accounts grew after the federal government call into question the spending ceiling to pay Auxílio Brasil, the replacement for Bolsa Família.
Cálculo do PIB
Products, services, rents, utilities, taxes and even contraband. These are some of the components of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), calculated by the IBGE, according to international standards. The objective is to measure the production of goods and services in the country in a given period.
The indicator shows who produces, who consumes and the income generated from that production. GDP growth (discounted for inflation) is usually called economic growth.
The survey is presented from the perspective of supply (what is produced) and demand (how these products and services are consumed). Quarterly GDP is released approximately 60 days after the end of the period in question.
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