Bolsonaro should grow in polls and make campaigns more aggressive, says XP analyst

The economic measures adopted by the government in recent weeks, less than two months before the elections, such as a reduction in energy and fuel prices and an increase in Auxílio Brasil, should lead to an increase in voting intentions for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with a consequent intensification of electoral campaigns.

The forecast is from Richard Back, head of political analysis at XP Investimentos.

“I think Bolsonaro looks more like 40% [de intenções de voto] than 30% face. [O atual presidente] go up [nas pesquisas] and it will be much tighter than it looked before”, said Back, during participation in an event held by the manager Tag Investimentos this Wednesday (17), in São Paulo.

A poll carried out by Datafolha at the end of July showed former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 52% of valid votes in the dispute, against 32% for Bolsonaro.

This rise of the incumbent “will scare the PT, it will scare Lula, and then the campaign will become increasingly active and aggressive. It will not be a campaign of great debates, it will be a campaign of great beatings”, stated Back.

The XP political analyst also said that what he called the “third round” — a scenario in which President Bolsonaro loses the elections and starts to question the results — is a risk on investors’ radar, both in Brazil and abroad.

Back stated that it is possible that in the weeks following the presidential election there will be some “agitation” among the Bolsonarista electorate, with demonstrations against the victory of former President Lula and the electoral process in general.

“I believe in some level of agitation,” said the XP analyst, adding that he predicted a victory for former President Lula in the elections.

One of the main managers in the country, Luis Stuhlberger, from Verde Asset, recently stated that questioning the outcome of the elections is the biggest risk in the Brazilian market today.

“If we have 15 days of post-election mess, it’s difficult to have a very calm market in a situation like this, even if nothing comes of it”, said Tiago Berriel, chief economist at BTG Pactual Asset Management, also present at the event. Tag.

World Cup should cool tempers, analyst predicts

Back, from XP, said, however, that he does not expect the movement questioning the electoral result to last for a long time and cause any more palpable risk of any kind of institutional rupture.

The demonstrations in defense of democracy, with a relevant part of the business community signaling that they will not support any coup attempt, contribute to reducing the risk of rupture, said the analyst.

In addition, the World Cup in the wake of the elections tends to contribute to a cooling of greater social agitation due to the electoral result, pointed out Back.

The XP analyst also said that it is difficult to predict at this moment what the strong names of a possible future PT government should be in the economic field.

According to the expert, former president Lula’s options in the economy include names that can be received in quite different ways by the market, citing among the possible alternatives from former minister Aloizio Mercadante and former president Dilma Rousseff, to economist Pérsio arid.

The margin of slack in relation to President Bolsonaro in a probable second round, added Back, should guide the choice of the PT candidate in the economy, with a more pro-market name in the event of a narrow victory, and with an indication that may not be so well received by investors, if the distance is wider.