Without aid, extreme poverty would have reached 27 million in Brazil in 2020, says IBGE

Income transfers via social programs such as emergency aid in 2020 prevented a surge in extreme poverty in Brazil. The conclusion is an analysis released this Friday (3) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

With the impact of social programs, the percentage of people in extreme poverty dropped to 5.7% in the initial year of the pandemic. The result is equivalent to about 12 million people in the country.

In a simulated scenario, without the support of aid measures, which mitigated the In the crisis seen in the labor market, the proportion of Brazilians in extreme poverty would reach 12.9% in 2020. In other words, it would be more than double the verified result. The 12.9% mark would correspond to around 27.3 million Brazilians, says the IBGE.

The projection is part of the Synthesis of Social Indicators, an annual publication that assesses a series of results in the areas of economy, education, housing and health.

To define the extreme poverty line, IBGE took into account the World Bank criteria, which covers people who survive on less than US$ 1.90 per day — or R$ 155 per capita per month, depending on the quotation and methodology used in the synthesis.

In 2019, the percentage of Brazilians in extreme poverty was 6.8%, higher than in 2020. This number takes into account the impact of social programs.

The 5.7% mark, registered in 2021, is the lowest since 2015 (5.1%). The IBGE series gathers data from 2012.

The institute made another comparison taking into account the poverty line of less than US$5.50 per day per person (R$450 per capita per month, according to the survey). It is the poverty level considered by the World Bank for upper-middle-income countries, such as Brazil.

With the support of social programs, the proportion of Brazilians in this condition was 24.1% in 2020, the lowest since 2014 (23.8%). Last year’s percentage equals nearly 51 million people.

Without cash transfers, the proportion would have jumped to 32.1%. The percentage would correspond to about 67.7 million Brazilians.

“Throughout the historical series (2012-2019), the difference between poverty and extreme poverty rates, with benefits from social programs and in a simulated scenario of earnings without benefits from social programs, ranged between 2.0 and 3.0 percentage points. In 2020, in the absence of social benefits, the difference would be 7.2 percentage points for extreme poverty and 8.0 percentage points for poverty”, points out the publication.

Inequality

By reaching especially the most vulnerable, social programs also temporarily reduced inequality, signals the IBGE.

The Gini index, which measures the disparity between the earnings of the poor and the rich, dropped in 2020 to 0.524, the same level as in 2015 and the lowest in the series started in 2012.

In a scenario without income transfers, the indicator would have reached 0.573, the highest value in the series, according to the IBGE.

The Gini index ranges from zero to one. The closer the result is to zero, the smaller the inequality.

Emergency aid was terminated by the federal government at the end of October 2021. On the eve of the 2022 electoral race, Palácio do Planalto also decided to replace Bolsa Família with Auxílio Brasil.

The new program has been raising uncertainties. In recent weeks, social assistance points across the country registered queues of people looking for information about benefit payments.

The Senate approved, this Thursday (2), the proposal that creates the Brazil Aid, which now goes to sanction. The Minister of Citizenship, João Roma, stated that the payment of the benefit in the amount of R$ 400 should still be made in December.