Voters’ optimism about the future of the economy takes a leap, says Datafolha

The assessment that Brazilian voters make of the performance of the economy has improved in the last month, and the population has become more optimistic about the country’s future and their personal financial situation, reveals a survey carried out by Datafolha this week.

According to the institute, 48% think that the country’s economic situation will improve in the coming months, 28% predict that it will remain the same and 18% expect it to get worse. A previous survey, carried out in June, showed 33% optimistic and 34% pessimistic.

The share of voters who bet on improving their personal financial situation in the coming months has increased from 47% to 58% since June, and the bloc of pessimists has dropped from 15% to 8%. Another 31% think their situation will remain the same.

Datafolha interviewed 5,744 voters in 281 cities between Tuesday (16) and Thursday (18). The study’s margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The research was contracted by Folha and TV Globo.

The rates that indicate a positive assessment of the performance of the economy and optimism about the future are the highest since 2019, the first year of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government, who is campaigning for reelection in October.

Expectations deteriorated significantly in the two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, when measures necessary to contain the transmission of the disease paralyzed various activities and caused economic stagnation and increased unemployment.

The advance of vaccination and the end of restrictions made optimism return at the end of 2021, but the uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine and high inflation stoked a new wave of pessimism at the beginning of this year, which now seems to be over.

The rate of those who think the country’s economic situation has worsened in recent months dropped from 67% to 54% between June and August. The portion that makes a positive assessment of the economy’s performance increased from 15% to 25% in the same period.

Respondents who reported improvement in their personal financial situation in recent months rose from 20% to 26%, according to Datafolha. Another 42% said their current condition is worse. In June, 47% thought so.

The movement follows the recent evolution of two key indicators to assess the well-being of the population. Measures taken to lower fuel prices caused inflation to subside, and the economic recovery caused unemployment to fall.

The IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index) accumulated a variation of 10.07% in the 12-month period ended in July. The rise in prices has slowed since April, and the index pointed to a drop of 0.68% last month.

The most recent survey by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography of Statistics) shows that the unemployment rate was 9.3% in the quarter ended in June, the lowest level observed by researchers in this period since 2015.

Despite the fall in unemployment, the average income of workers, which fell during the pandemic, remains stagnant. And food prices, which weigh heavily on the pockets of the poorest, continue to rise more than those of other products.

In addition, everything indicates that the recovery of economic activity that has taken place in recent months will be short-lived. Projections compiled by the Central Bank point to a growth of 2% in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this year, and 0.4% next year.

According to Datafolha, optimism about the economy is lower among the poorest, with a family income of less than two minimum wages (R$ 2,424) per month, and higher in the middle class, among those earning from two to five minimum wages (R$ $6,060).

Expectations are also better among those who have work. The share of those who are optimistic about the country’s economic situation increased from 31% to 49% among workers with a formal contract and from 31% to 41% among the unemployed.

According to the Datafolha survey, positive assessment of the economy’s performance and optimism about the future are higher among men than among women, among evangelicals and among Bolsonaro supporters.

With the economy at the top of the electorate’s concerns, the president has taken measures in recent months to contain the rise in fuel prices, increase the value of Auxílio Brasil and create new benefits for the poorest.

The payments began to be made this month, but they still do not appear to have generated the political dividends expected by Bolsonaro in his attempt to catch up with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), leader of the presidential race.

The most recent survey by Datafolha shows that the president managed to reduce the distance that separates him from the PT in the last month, but he is still far from him. According to the institute, Lula has 47% of the voting intentions and Bolsonaro has 32%.

The survey indicates that Auxílio Brasil payments have little influence on economic expectations. Among program beneficiaries, 53% think the economy will improve. Among those who do not receive help, 47% think the same way.