Bankers and businessmen pressure presidential candidates to present concrete measures in the economy

Less than 40 days before the presidential election, bankers and businessmen are perplexed by the absence of concrete proposals to stimulate the economy in the government plans presented by the campaigns of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to the Superior Court. Electoral Council (TSE).

Executives and economists at major financial institutions, industry, commerce and service sector leaders say they “have been trying to rip off” the two candidates who lead polls of intention to take measures to revive GDP.

THE Sheet heard, on condition of anonymity, six bankers, two big businessmen in the industry, two in retail and one in the service sector. He also interviewed association leaders, analysts and economists from investment banks and brokerage firms.

Privately, they classify the government’s plans registered in the TSE as an “empty protocol of intentions”.

“I have conversations with both sides and neither is signaling anything fantastic,” said Ricardo Lacerda, a partner at BR Partners, an investment bank. “The two programs [ao TSE] were presented in a very cynical way. Everything is vague, it’s just more of the same [de ambos os lados]. The discussion turned ideological. The main thing is not given, what will be the reforms, the measures to be taken.”

That’s why, in the last two weeks, bankers and businessmen went in search of information from the candidates themselves to unravel at least two crucial points: the proposal for a new fiscal anchor and the project for the resumption of economic growth.

At the meetings, both candidates and their teams mentioned the need to revise the spending ceiling, as it corrects one year’s expenses for the previous year’s inflation.

For the financial market, with the loss of investment grade (seal that the country is a profitable destination), in 2015, the ceiling became the main indicator that the country will not become insolvent or spendthrift.

Three bankers said Lula had explicitly promised to end the spending cap. Instead, his team is studying the creation of a mechanism linked to a volume of spending, which would be higher initially and then reduced throughout the term.

In the meetings of representatives of the sectors with Bolsonaro and his Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, the proposal being evaluated is that spending can grow above inflation — easing the ceiling rule — when indebtedness is close to 60% of GDP.

Many consider Lula’s plan better because it would be more efficient in controlling public accounts in the long run.

For the business community, more concerned with the resumption of consumption and credit, what draws attention in the plan of both candidates is the promise of using guarantees granted by public banks and specific funds to back bank loans, especially for small entrepreneurs. port.

Lula said to the businessmen heard by the Sheet which will boost the use of these guarantees via BNDES and Banco do Nordeste, both development institutions, Caixa and BB. Commercial banks will also be able to use these public guarantees to back their own financing.

“I think it’s the only way to heat up the economy,” said André Perfeito, chief economist at Necton, the investment arm of BTG. “There are no cash resources for subsidy via interest, as happened in the Lula government. And this endorsement program is already working in the Bolsonaro government.”

During the pandemic, Bolsonaro approved Pronampe, a loan program for companies with guarantees given by the National Treasury.

The program was strongly supported by private banks, serving as a credit engine during the health crisis.

Sebrae, which has an endorsement fund called Fampe, also entered this niche. Later, another law was sanctioned by Bolsonaro and created the FGI, a BNDES guarantee fund.

The idea of ​​endorsements —mainly with money from the Treasury and FGTS— is to kick-start the credit wheel. Once the first step is taken, the monthly payments on a loan granted serve as collateral for new loans.

For Lula, this will also be a way to restructure small business debts. According to the former president, his government will renegotiate these debts, especially for women.

An estimated 55 million women, all of whom are breadwinners and small business owners, are in debt.

The necessary reforms for the return of investments, especially from foreigners, were lacking in the plans presented, according to the business community.

Lula still causes concern due to statements by his party (PT) that he may cancel the effects of the labor reform, which made the negotiated (between employee and employer) prevail.

The former president defended in these private conversations with bankers that keep the reform in force. He announced, however, “improvements” to give more weight to the unions, today too weakened in the PT’s assessment.

Bolsonaro said he will maintain the reform already carried out and will try to launch the Green and Yellow Card program with incentives for the formalization of the worker. Those who contribute to Social Security will have access to credit with differentiated interest in public banks, for example.

The most awaited reform by the business community, the tax reform has practically the same treatment given by Lula and Bolsonaro. Both promise to carry out measures in Congress that provide for tax simplification, but they differ in form.

Bolsonaro wants to carry out the reform in phases: first, to unify federal taxes and, later, to promote the junction with the ICMS. This strategy, however, failed in the current term.

Lula defends taking forward the PEC of the tax reform being discussed in Congress and defends the immediate creation of VAT, the single tax that aggregates the others.

Both announced that they would carry out the correction of the Individual Income Tax table. Lula wants exemption for those who earn up to R$5,000 a month and Bolsonaro for those who earn up to R$2,500.

Despite the promises, the business community heard by the Sheet he says he doesn’t believe that, since it will be necessary to increase the Treasury’s cash in the face of a scenario that points to a global drop in growth, with high inflation and interest rates.

Entrepreneurs claim to have little concrete information about candidates’ plans for Corporate Income Tax.

Lula and Bolsonaro also did not make clear some topics, such as the collection of the CSLL (Contribution on Net Income), the opening of the economy, the reduction of taxes in the granting of credit and the incidence of tax on profits and dividends.

Guedes has publicly defended the progress of a lean IR (Income Tax) reform, reducing taxation on companies and creating taxation on dividends.

The idea is to carry out a kind of mini-tax reform that would include reducing the IRPJ (Corporate Income Tax) rate, from the current 34% to 30%. In addition, dividends would be taxed at 10% (today, they are exempt).

Regarding the administrative reform, Lula signals for the appreciation of the server, while Bolsonaro promises to dry the payroll of civil servants.