Dollar fluctuates close to R$5.20 with conservative exterior

The dollar fluctuated this Thursday morning (1st), reaching an earlier rise after having already advanced significantly in the last two sessions, with the Brazilian currency sensitive to the external bad mood amid fears about interest rate hikes and risk. recession in major economies.

Meanwhile, on the local scene, investors were analyzing better-than-expected data on economic activity in the second quarter and monitoring election news. Brazil’s GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter of this year compared to the first.

At 9:28 am (GMT), the spot dollar had a positive variation of 0.04%, to R$ 5.2028 on sale, after rising to R$ 5.225, a high of 0.47%, the maximum so far.

On B3, the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.29% to R$5.2395.

This Wednesday (31), the commercial dollar showed strong appreciation against the real, pressured by the expectation of rising interest rates in the main global economies.

The American currency traded in cash closed up 1.76%, quoted at R$ 5.2010 on sale. In the accumulated result for August, there was an increase of 0.54%.

The monthly closing of Ptax may also have influenced the value of the American currency on Wednesday. Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient for their positions.

The Brazilian Stock Exchange ended August with the second best result this year. Foreign investors sought domestic equities this month as they realized that ongoing measures to combat inflation in the US and Europe could last longer than expected, creating lingering threats to growth in those markets.

The Ibovespa, the stock exchange’s reference index, increased 6.16% in the month. The result was below the high of 6.98% in January, the best month for the local stock market since December 2020, when the indicator rose 9.30%.

At the daily close of this Wednesday, however, the Ibovespa did not resist the negative pressure from the outside and ended the session down 0.82%, at 109,522 points.

Foreigners brought around BRL 18 billion to the local stock market this month, against BRL 1.8 billion in July, considering the partial balance for August raised by TradeMap.

August had the best result since April in terms of the flow of investment from abroad to the Stock Exchange, but still lagged the average monthly balances of R$ 23 billion in the first quarter.

In comparison with the main international exchanges, the balance is largely favorable to Brazil.

In New York, the S&P 500 indicator ended August with a loss of 4.24%. In Europe, the London Stock Exchange fell 1.88%. Paris and Frankfurt tumbled 5.02% and 4.81%, respectively, in the same period.

Some factors put Brazil at a momentary advantage compared to abroad, among which is the possible end of the cycle of raising the basic interest rate, while other countries are still discussing how much the cost of credit will need to rise until inflation is under control. .

“The justification for this performance comes from the beginning of the month, when Copom [Comitê de Política Monetária] the Brazilian Central Bank decided to signal that the interest rate hike is over”, commented Ubirajara Silva, manager of Galapagos Capital.

Last week, the chairman of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank) threw a bucket of cold water on the part of the market that was waiting for an imminent end to the monetary tightening in the United States.

Jerome Powell said Americans are heading into a painful period of sluggish economic growth and possibly rising unemployment, as the US central bank must maintain its policy of aggressively raising its interest rate in an attempt to balance supply and demand.