Shuttle: Grain production is record, but food inflation continues

Conab announced this Thursday (8) that the 2021/22 grain harvest was a record. For the first time, the country managed to reach 271 million tons, 6% above the production of the previous period.

This number, although record, does not relieve the pocket of lower-income consumers, who have a strong component of spending on food.

In August, São Paulo had an average price increase of 0.12%, according to Fipe (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas). Part of the food already has a fall, but still continue to punish the consumer.

Average food prices are currently 16% higher than a year ago, driven mainly by the population’s daily staples. A return to the levels prior to this accelerated inflation will still take time.

The country increases production, but of exportable products. These exports bring into Brazil the values ​​of the international market, putting the domestic consumer, without income, far from food.

Difficulties in feeding start early in the morning. Ground coffee is 58% more expensive than a year ago. Milk rose 57%, and sugar, 12%. If the option is for a bagel, the consumer will pay 22% more for the product, while margarine rose 36% in the period.

Rice, which had been registering a decline — it currently costs 3% less than a year ago —, has risen again in recent weeks. Off-season and exports made prices change course.

Already the prices of beans stopped rising. The legume, however, still has a long way to go to return to the level of negotiations of a year ago. In Fipe’s calculations, the high accumulated in 12 months is 26%.

Lower-income consumers will also find it difficult to substitute these products for more affordable ones. Cornmeal has evolved by 65%; corn flour, 41%; and manioc flour, 25%.

Among proteins, pork can be an outlet. Current prices are 5% lower than in August 2021. This drop was due to a reduction in imports made by China in the first half of the year. The Asian country, however, is returning to shopping.

In the first half, Brazil exported, on average, 76 thousand tons of pork per month. In this second, the average is at 97 thousand. The internal adjustment in production and greater volume exported should give new directions to prices.

Chicken meat, more affordable, rose 10%. Bovine, on the other hand, has increased by only 1% in 12 months, but is at a level that is not accessible to a large part of the population.

Vegetables are starting to decline, but they are still very expensive. While these prices may return faster than other foods, vegetables still cost 15% more than they did a year ago; and fruits, 18%. Vegetables are stable.

The kilo of onion accumulates a high of 101%, and that of potato, 12% in the period, according to Fipe.
It’s a long way back, mainly because all production costs have gone up.