For one of the largest asset managers in the world, although the elections in Brazil are an important event, especially for Brazilian investors, they are just another risk factor to be considered within a much broader global panorama.
Axel Christensen, chief investment strategist for Latin America at BlackRock, says that local political disputes are closely monitored and taken into account when deciding on investments, but they carry a different weight for a manager with a global presence compared to those domiciled in the country. .
“We have a different perspective when looking at Brazil within a global and diversified portfolio”, said Christensen, during a meeting with journalists this Monday (12).
The BlackRock strategist, which had around US$ 10 trillion in assets under management in December 2021, also stated that the biggest risk he sees in the Brazilian market at the moment is not election, imbalance in public accounts or inflation, but the ability to the region to show consistent and sustainable economic growth over a long-term horizon.
“Our biggest concern, and this not only in relation to Brazil, but with the entire Latin American region, is in relation to long-term growth,” said the expert. “The biggest challenge for countries in the region is to look for ways to increase growth rates.”
According to him, it will naturally be necessary to adjust investment decisions according to the electoral result, but “political changes are part of the environment with which it is necessary to deal”.
He added that, in addition to the election for president, Brazil will also choose a new Congress, and it will be necessary to study the political configuration in Brasilia starting next year to understand more clearly what the economic conduct of the country will be.
Christensen also stated that he does not expect a recovery in the equity and fixed income markets on a global scale in the short term, as the scenario of high inflation and high interest rates in developed economies in the United States and Europe is likely to remain present. for some more time.
“In the short term, we are more cautious with the developed markets, because we assess that investors have not yet built into their forecasts the effect of more persistent inflation and the reaction in interest rates”, said the BlackRock strategist.
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