Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: São Paulo dispute is open, with distracted voters and Bolsonarist invasion

Almost half of the voters in São Paulo do not know who is the governor candidate for reelection, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB), nor the envoy of Bolsonarism to the state, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). They are unknown to 44% of the electorate, according to Datafolha. Fernando Haddad (PT) is unknown by 7%.

The voter’s indifference and ignorance are one of the most important issues for this remaining fortnight of the campaign. Also important, the vote for governor has no differences in “class” (income, education) as is the vote for president in the state.

Of historical relevance, but whether political, it has been more than 20 years since the capital and the state chose harmful extravagances — a diplomatic understatement. Malufismo ended in 2000 in the capital, and Quercism ended in 1995 in the state.

If anyone doesn’t care about this relative tranquility of São Paulo and São Paulo, think about the disaster of the government of Rio de Janeiro in the last 25 years, at least. To whom it may concern: this journalist was born in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Badly, at least nobody broke the governments here, in São Paulo, ruined institutions or was part of a political current that denied vaccines, mocked the sick, attacked women and defended dictatorships or torturers. Tarcísio de Freitas, the Bolsonarista, can break this writing, as he has a chance of a second round. To pay attention further:

1) voters who vote null, white or are undecided add up to 18% in the election for governor of São Paulo. For the election of president, they add up to 6% in São Paulo. There can be a lot of loose votes there;

2) Haddad has 36% of the votes; Freitas, 22%; Garcia, 19%. The PT is beaten, but his vote has been almost stable since the beginning of the campaign;

3) Haddad for now beats Freitas handily in the second round (60% to 40% of valid votes), even in the more conservative interior of São Paulo. But wins Garcia by a smaller difference and that decreases quickly (from 54% to 46%). Ties with the toucan on the inside;

4) Garcia has the lowest rejection among the top three in the survey: 17% (Haddad, 35%; Freitas, 27%). As soon as it was presented to the public, its government’s assessment significantly improved;

5) Haddad is well voted in all income and education categories — not like Lula. But he has fewer votes than Lula for president, in the state (36% to 43%).

That said, it should be noted that Freitas, the Bolsonarista, and Garcia, the Tucano, can count on the possibility of seeking votes in that 44% of the electorate that does not know them. Moreover, there are fewer “fully decided” voters in the vote for governor (62%) than in the vote for president, in São Paulo (75%). As for Haddad’s potential, it should be repeated that he has fewer votes than Lula in the state.

Freitas had a good career as a technician in the high federal bureaucracy until he debuted and blossomed in politics as a bolsonarista very dear to his president, those who go to Jair Bolsonaro’s “lives” and laugh at the atrocities.

Garcia is an (adopted) heir to the long line of tucanistan viziers. He was a kind of director general of the government of João Doria, who had a very good administration, although he was detested.

It is a less “classist” election, with relatively low rejections and which has no dominant political or programmatic theme so far. The history of the dispute will depend on the image that Freitas and Garcia will be able to sell in the coming days and on the image they will stick to their foreheads.

Campaign nationalization and last-minute gimmicks can make a difference in qualifying for the second round. Bolsonaro is rejected by 55% of Paulistas.