The dollar advanced against the real in the first trades on Tuesday (20), after falling sharply the day before, with investors adopting caution in the first of two days of monetary policy meetings of the central banks of Brazil and the United States.
At 9:09 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 0.75%, at R$ 5.2052 on sale. On B3, at 9:09 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.58% to R$5.2190.
In this trading session, the Central Bank will auction up to 13,760 traditional foreign exchange swap contracts for the purpose of rolling over the maturity date of October 3, 2022.
This Monday (19), the dollar closed down sharply against the real, with investors adopting an optimistic stance in relation to the performance of the Central Bank of Brazil in its policy of controlling inflation.
The spot commercial dollar fell 1.82%, at R$5.1640 on sale. On the Brazilian Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa index jumped 2.33%, to 111,823 points.
Market participants reported a number of reasons for the exchange rate drop, including the feeling that the country’s monetary authority was right to raise its interest rate.
The prevailing market opinion is that Brazil will end the cycle of raising the Selic rate this Wednesday (21), with a possible last adjustment of 0.25%.
This positive expectation about the country contrasts with the concern about the next steps of the main central banks, mainly the American one, which should announce a strong increase in the cost of credit on Wednesday (21).
Some analysts also pointed out that this optimism about Brazil was reinforced by the news of former Central Bank president Henrique Meirelles’ support for the candidacy of former President Lula (PT).
The message captured by the market regarding Meirelles’ support is that of predictability in economic conduct in an eventual PT mandate. This does not mean that the market is in favor or against Lula, but that there is now an expectation of rationality and moderation in relation to the policy of the candidate who leads the polls.
In the external scenario, investors expect a sharp rise in benchmark interest rates in the United States. Two weeks ago, the market considered an increase between 0.50 and 0.75 percentage point, but now there is an expectation for an increase between 0.75 and 1 percentage point.
Caused by the breakdown of supply chains during the pandemic and exacerbated by the Ukrainian War, inflation is a problem for major economies.
Faced with the persistence of inflation, the fear that the United States will be forced to raise interest rates to the point of causing a fall in the world economy in the coming months is gaining strength.
On Wall Street, the main indicators of the American market closed this Monday’s session with a moderate recovery from the strong low of last week.
The Dow Jones, which tracks the performance of 30 of the largest US companies, rose 0.64%. The S&P 500, the parameter for shares traded in New York, advanced 0.69%.
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