Find out how much BRL 1,000 earn in savings, CDB and Treasury with Selic at 13.75%

by

Despite the BC (Central Bank) deciding to keep the Selic rate at the level of 13.75% per year, fixed income investments continue with very attractive yields.

With inflation on a decelerating trajectory over the last few weeks, the real interest offered by fixed income investments becomes more attractive, says Andrew Storfer, director of economics at Anefac (National Association of Finance Executives). Real interest is income after discounting inflation.

“When we have a declining inflation, and the Selic remains stable, the real interest ends up going up”, says the expert.

In August, the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index) again registered deflation (fall) with the impact of low fuel prices, while products such as personal hygiene, clothing and part of food showed high.

Last month, the country’s official inflation index dropped 0.36%, according to data released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

With the new truce, inflation returned to single digits in the 12-month period. The rise in prices reached 8.73% until August, after 10.07% until the previous month.

Interest at the current level, adds the director of Anefac, tend to have a negative impact on consumption and credit, but, from the point of view of financial investment, further reinforce the attractiveness of fixed income.

According to a survey carried out by Storfer, with the current level of the basic interest rate, an investment of R$ 1,000 in the post-fixed public security Selic Treasury, which closely follows the profitability of the basic interest rate, would yield the investor R$ 114, 57, considered an interval of 12 months.

The amount considers an investment with an interest rate of 13.89% per year and already deducts the incidence of the Income Tax rate of 17.5% for investments redeemed within one year.

By Anefac’s calculations, CDBs (Bank Deposit Certificates) of medium-sized banks represent the most profitable option among the main alternatives, returning to the investor who invest R$ 1,000 within a year the value of R$ 124.78, IR deducted at source. In this case, the interest considered is 15.13% per year.

In relation to large banks, the income received after 12 months would be R$ 105.50, upon application with interest of 12.79%.

In the case of LCIs (Mortgage Letters of Credit) and LCAs (Agricultural Letters of Credit), which do not have a IR discount, the net gain within one year will be R$ 123.75, remunerated at an interest of 12 .38% per year.

“Applications such as Treasury Direct, CDBs of large banks, conservative funds and letters of credit are safe and have a yield, depending on the term, very close to or even above the Selic”, says the director of Anefac.

Storfer adds that, in the case of CDBs of smaller institutions, although they offer more attractive yields, they also expose investors to a greater level of risk.

In this case, the expert says that the investor should try to make a contribution within the limit covered by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund), which guarantees the amount of up to R$ 250 thousand per CPF and financial conglomerate, in case of any financial problems that the issuing institution will suffer along the way.

Savings earns less than half of the Selic

The savings account, on the other hand, has the lowest return among the options analyzed, even without the IR discount.

Even with the recent upward trajectory in the basic interest rate, which increases the attractiveness of fixed-income products in general, the savings yield does not change.

Despite the rise in the Selic, which went from the historic low of 2% in March 2021 to the current 13.75% per year, the application of the passbook continues with the yield unchanged at 6.17% per year, plus the TR ( Referential Rate).

Savings remuneration is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year. When the basic rate is up to 8.5%, the savings yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic.

“In this scenario, savings, despite being an easy and safe application, is not competitive, yielding less than half of the Selic”, says Storfer.

Inflation at levels still under pressure, added to the more restrictive financial conditions imposed by the advance of the Selic, has contributed to increasing withdrawals of savings resources.

The savings account registered a net withdrawal of R$ 22.016 billion in August, in a scenario of high interest rates that reduces the competitiveness of the application against other investments, data from the BC showed.

The volume of withdrawals was much higher than the negative result of R$ 5.468 billion in the same month of 2021 and represents the largest nominal net withdrawal (that is, without discounting inflation) for all months of the BC historical series, which began in 1995.

The record loss was registered even in the face of payments by the federal government of social benefits boosted in an election year. Transfers such as the Auxílio Brasil surcharge, the Auxílio Gás supplement and benefits for truck drivers and taxi drivers started in August.

As a result, the savings account accumulates a net withdrawal of R$ 85.168 billion between January and August of this year, also a record in the series. In the same period of 2021, the data was negative by R$ 15.630 billion.

The flow of funds in savings began to accumulate significant withdrawals in 2021, when Brazilian purchasing power fell significantly in the face of double-digit inflation and an intense interest rate shock.

You May Also Like

Recommended for you