See the shares that appreciated the most under Bolsonaro, Temer, Dilma and Lula

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What do the terms of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former presidents Michel Temer (MDB), Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) have in common?

In all of them, the stocks of the Ibovespa index of the commodities, banking and consumption sectors were among those that appreciated the most on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, according to a survey by the TradeMap platform. The data consider the shares that were part of the Ibovespa, the main stock exchange index, on the final date of each government.

High cycles in raw material prices for various reasons, such as the growth in China and the post-Covid recovery, contributed to the prominence of commodity papers, while banks benefited from both high and low moments in the basic rate. of interest.

“Government comes in, government comes out, the big winners of the Stock Exchange in the last 20 years were, on the one hand, commodities, and on the other, the financial sector, which makes perfect sense, considering the macroeconomic environment in the period”, says Sérgio Vale , chief economist at MB Associados consultancy.

Also according to the economist, the prospect of low economic growth in the country’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2023 and the high levels at which commodity prices continue to be negotiated should make raw material exporters stand out again. on the local stock market in the coming months.

In the case of the financial sector, Necton analyst Rodrigo Barreto says that banks have the ability to navigate well both in more positive environments for the Brazilian economy and in situations where the pace of growth is more modest.

This is because, in scenarios of economic strength, in which interest rates are usually at lower levels in relation to the historical average, banks are able to make money by increasing the volume of transactions. And, when inflation skyrockets and interest rates rise, the volume transacted drops but the spread increases, which is how much the bank charges to lend money to customers, says the expert.

“Banks are very resilient and represent a safe option for investors at any time,” says Barreto.

The consumer sector, in turn, had its best days on the stock exchange when the Brazilian economy was more heated, with interest rates at more moderate levels, or at times when governments adopted extraordinary measures to stimulate consumption, such as the stock exchange Family in the Lula government and the release of the FGTS during the Temer government.

In addition to economic cycles, the important presence of sectors in the Brazilian economy, and within the Stock Exchange itself, are also responsible for the results presented over the last presidential terms.

Jair Bolsonaro

“In the Bolsonaro government, we have commodities among the main positive highlights, which has a lot to do with the resumption of post-Covid global demand, as well as with the logistics problems that hampered supply”, says João Frota Salles, an analyst at Senso. investments.

Private oil company PetroRio led the gains in Ibovespa shares between December 31, 2018 and September 9, 2022, with an accumulated profitability of around 1,300% in the interval.

Eneva and Copel, of energy, the meatpacking company Minerva and SLC Agrícola also stand out among the biggest rises of the Ibovespa in the last four years.

Sales adds that the financial sector, through names such as BTG Pactual and Banco Pan, was also another positive highlight under Bolsonaro’s mandate, amid falling interest rates due to the pandemic and the government’s adoption of benefit packages to encourage demand, and therefore credit.

Point out of the curve, the computer manufacturer Positivo, says Vale, from MB, may have stood out for the distribution of money made in the most acute moments of the pandemic, with the population locked inside the house taking advantage of the measure to purchase consumer goods.

Michel Temer

Under the government of Michel Temer, the main highlight was the shares of retailer Magazine Luiza, with a rise of around 2,300% in just over two years, between August 2016 and the end of 2018.

In the period, the Selic rate touched the then historic low of 6.5% per year, which served as an incentive to increase the population’s travel expenses, also reflected in the presence of Gol and CVC shares among the highest increases in the year. Ibovespa.

The economist at MB Associados says that the income distribution programs, with the release of the FGTS (Service Time Guarantee Fund), also contributed to the highlights of the consumer sector.

In any case, the major commodity producers and the financial sector, via BB (Banco do Brasil), are once again present among the main highlights of the period.

Dilma 2

In Dilma Rousseff’s second term, the financial sector benefited from the peak of the Selic rate, which reached 14.25% per year, with the collection of higher interest from customers, which favored securities from companies such as B3 and Santander Brasil .

In addition, the growing demand for essential consumer goods, such as medicines, helped to sustain outstanding gains from stocks such as RaiaDrogasil and Hypera, as well as from companies operating in the public utilities sector, such as Sabesp, Equatorial and Energias do Brasil.

According to Enrico Cozzolino, head of analysis and partner at Levante Investimentos, Dilma’s governments can be summarized by policies to encourage consumption and encourage industry, along with investment in infrastructure sectors.

“In this way, it is possible to see a much more diversified growth of the stock exchange’s assets. However, all linked to some front of the policies adopted in the period”, says Cozzolino.

Dilma 1

During PT’s first term, the double-crossing of the financial sector —with Cielo and Bradesco— and commodities, via BRF and JBS, was repeated again. Consumption, with Ambev and Lojas Americanas, and education, via Yduqs (formerly Estácio), also stood out in the period.

Barreto, from Necton, also states that the outstanding performance of TIM, and also of Telefônica Brasil, which advanced almost 60% in PT’s first term, benefited from the implementation of the PNBL (National Broadband Program), which aimed to promote inclusion and to massify internet access in the country.

squid 2

In the administrations of the former president and favorite in this year’s elections, according to polls, the commodities supercycle left exporters, once again, among the highest highs on the local stock market.

CSN, MMX, and Vale, in addition to the CCR concessionaire, marked the main gains in the second term of Lula’s government.

Souza Cruz, Ambev and Lojas Renner, from the consumer sector, in turn, were names that also managed to stand out between 2006 and 2010.

“The economic growth of the period and social programs, such as Bolsa Família, which encouraged consumption, began to favor companies in the retail sector”, says Cozzolino.

He adds that, in Lula’s second term, the launch of the PAC (Growth Acceleration Program) contributed to the continuity of the positive moment for commodities and infrastructure roles, such as CCR.

Barreto, from Necton, also states that electric power names, such as Transmissão Paulista and Eletropaulo, emerged in a scenario of rising middle class, which brought a growing demand for energy, and, consequently, the need for investments in the area to avoid possibility of blackouts.

squid 1

Usiminas and Gerdau, in addition to CSN and CCR, were the highlights in the PT’s first term.

“The commodity boom movement is linked to the high growth of China in the period”, says Cozzolino, from Levante. “Demand for basic materials to support Chinese construction fueled prices across Latin America.”

In the opinion of market experts, if the former president confirms the forecasts and returns for a third term, securities from construction companies aimed at low-income and education, in addition to commodities, are pointed out as the likely winners of the Exchange.

If the scenario to be confirmed ahead is a reelection of the current president, analysts are betting that state-owned Petrobras and BB should have a good performance, with the continuity of liberal economic policy and the possibility of new privatizations.

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