Analysts consulted by the Central Bank reduced inflation forecasts and increased the estimate for this year’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the 13th consecutive week, showed the latest weekly update of the Focus survey, released this Monday (26).
The expectation for the Selic rate was once again maintained at the current level of 13.75% for the end of this year and 11.25% for the end of 2023, after the Central Bank interrupted its monetary tightening cycle on Wednesday. last Friday (21), considering that it will not hesitate to resume interest rate hikes if the reduction in inflation does not take place as expected.
The median of projections for the IPCA of the institutions consulted by the BC dropped to 5.88% for 2022, from 6% a week ago. For 2023, the estimate fluctuated to 5.00%, from 5.01% before.
The changes again followed the prospect of a more benign scenario for administered prices, amid the reduction in fuel prices: -4.42% in 2022 (-4.16% before) and +5.58% in 2023 (+ 5.75% before).
For 2024, inflation expectations were maintained at 3.5%, after three weeks of highs. The central target for the year is 3.0%.
Analysts now expect GDP growth of 2.67% this year, a slight improvement from the 2.65% forecast last week. The estimate for 2023 was maintained at 0.50% growth for the second week in a row.
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