Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Race to join Lula should not give carte blanche to PT

In recent days, the adhesion of “personalities”, elite cadres, “famous” or “influencers” to Lula da Silva’s candidacy has caused some buzz, especially from many people who were never sympathetic to the PT or who always showed an aversion to the party and its ultimate leader, in word and deed.

It’s kind of predictable, even more so at the end of the campaign in these times of social networks and in an election with a stale plebiscitary character. Whether these “influencers” will influence a vote is less likely. Perhaps they could be a symptom of a broader electoral movement, than we will only know on Saturday, with polls ahead of polls — and look there.

For now, it is possible that around 22 million could still change their vote, a poor estimate based on the percentage of “volatile” voters, according to Datafolha, the potential electorate and the 2018 voter turnout. Millions of these voters do not pay attention to the news. or social media bullshit and political talk. Perhaps they will make up their minds in last-minute cell phone texting.

For at least a dozen days, as recorded in these columns, politicians from various parties, including the core of the Bolsonarist center (PL and PP), have also sent “messages” to adherents. “Technical” cadres offer their services, some blatantly.

At least with regard to economic policy, it cannot be adherence to a program, which does not exist. There are those who say that embarking on the now-favorite candidacy means giving Lula “carte blanche” (until yesterday, these people granted a “gray card” or even a dirty one, to Jair Bolsonaro). Some others claim that a second round would force the PT to negotiate support and, thus, to make a program explicit.

In the event of a second round, Lula should have had almost 50% of the votes. His relevant opponents, in addition to Bolsonaro, must add up to 12%, otherwise votes that these other candidates do not control. So there’s very little to trade around out there.

The softer conversation will start when the composition of the Congress is known, which should not be much different from what came out of the 2020 municipal election. It will be necessary to verify if the current political leaderships have maintained their strength. One or two state election results may be relevant, more as a sign — governors don’t command political herds.

These parties do any business. They were enshrined in the “developmentalist” government of Dilma Rousseff. However, the ideological climate in the country has changed since the disaster that erupted between 2013 and 2015, even more so after the most extreme right dared to scream her name. So much so that the government’s creditors, “the market”, seem to believe that some tolerable deal will be arranged, with surprising ease. This is what appears in the relatively calm financial indicators (given the horrible situation of public accounts and the economy).

Owners of money say that the fact that Lula does not have a program only means that, if elected, he will see where the wind blows. Lula 3 would then be a result of the hoarse voice of the streets with realism, the pressure of ugly economic necessity. I would invent a palatable program from there, almost from scratch. The “carte blanche” would actually be a blank card. The accessions would even be another impetus for a broader agreement, which began to be signaled since the accession of Geraldo Alckmin. It may be mere wishful thinking, but it is the topic of much elite conversation.