The Central Bank predicts growth of 1% for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2023, according to the quarterly inflation report released by the monetary authority this Thursday (29).
In its scenario, the BC considered the expected influence of the global deceleration and the cumulative impacts of monetary policy, with the basic interest rate (Selic) fixed at 13.75% per year.
The monetary authority’s first estimate of economic growth for the coming year was above financial market expectations and below government projections.
For 2023, the Ministry of Economy predicts growth of 2.5%, while economists from the private sector estimate a rise of 0.5%, according to the Focus bulletin published last Monday (26). The estimate, which was 0.37% a month ago, remained stable for the second week in a row.
as showed the Sheetthis detachment of government and market projections on next year’s GDP occurs early when looking at the entire period of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government.
For this year, the BC revised its forecast for GDP growth again and now expects an advance of 2.7%. The latest estimate, released in June, was up 1.7%.
As for inflation, as disclosed in the communiqué of the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, the BC estimate for the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index) is 5.8% for this year, compared to 8.8%. % in the previous report.
The drop was driven by the impact of lower fuel and electricity prices after cuts in ICMS (state tax) rates and tax relief measures.
Despite the downward revision, the monetary authority’s projection for 2022 remains far from the 3.5% target set by the CMN (National Monetary Council) — with 1.5 percentage points of tolerance up and down.
The probability that inflation will be above the ceiling of the target to be pursued this year, which was close to 100% in June, rose to around 93% in the new report.
When the estimates come to fruition, BC President Roberto Campos Neto should write a letter to the Minister of Economy explaining the reasons for not meeting the target for the second consecutive year.
Inflation ended 2021 at 10.06%, while the center of the target was 3.75%. It was the biggest increase since 2015. As a justification, the head of the autarchy wrote that the double-digit IPCA was to blame for the global phenomenon.
For 2023, the estimate of exceeding the fixed limit has also increased, from around 29% to around 46%. The BC forecast for next year’s IPCA is 4.6% – still within the target tolerance margin limit, set at 3.25%.
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