Brazil’s income in the 19th century grew at the same pace from 1980 to 2021, says Bacha

The growth of Brazilian GDP per capita from 1820 to 1900 was 0.9% per year, the same rate recorded in the period 1980-2021. The data presented by economist Edmar Bacha represents a result superior to the stagnation estimated by economic historiography for most of the 19th century.

Together with economists Guilherme Tombolo and Flávio Versiani, Bacha produced two works: one reviewing data from the 20th century, published on the Iepe/Casa das Garças website, and another on the period comprising most of the Brazilian Empire, which should be published in October.

According to Bacha, contrary to what the economic literature says, Brazilian GDP per capita did not stagnant in the 19th century — it grew at the world average of the period. The growth from 1900 to 1980 was lower than the data from the National Accounts.

The conclusion is that the difference between the two analyzed periods is smaller than previously estimated: 1.6 percentage points, half of that found in previous calculations.

“The 19th century GDP per capita did not stagnant, and the GDP from 1900 to 1980 did not grow that much”, said the economist this Thursday (29) at an event at the ABL (Academia Brasileira de Letras), an institution of which he is a member. , within the cycle of conferences on the bicentennial of the Independence of Brazil.

According to Bacha, previous estimates pointed to an accumulated growth of 25% from 1820 to 1890, reduced to 0.1% when the last decade of the 19th century, marked by a serious economic crisis in Brazil, is incorporated.

The new calculations made by the three economists show an expansion of 93% in the accumulated until 1890, practically the same rate of Latin America and a result superior to the 77% of Western Europe.

In the period from 1820 to 1900, incorporated into the decade of the Brazilian crisis, Brazil’s GDP per capita grew by 65%, compared to 116% on the Latin American continent and 100% in Europe.

According to the economist, the difference in the calculations is mainly due to the change in the price index used to deflate GDP. The indirect variables used to measure the product were also reviewed.