Businessmen ask Lula to define a minister and reforms to maintain support

The fierce outcome of the presidential race and the leadership of Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) in the race for the government of São Paulo changed the electoral climate in a large part of the national business community, which is now pressuring former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) for a well-defined plan for the economy in exchange for maintaining support in the second round.

The change is due to a surprise with the results of the elections, given the show of force by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) as an electoral corporal, electing most of his candidates to Congress and state governments.

Freitas, Bolsonaro’s former Minister of Infrastructure, won 42% of the valid votes in São Paulo against 35% for Fernando Haddad (PT), who led by a wide margin in opinion polls.

A banker said, on condition of anonymity, that, given this new scenario, Lula would be a phone call away from victory if he called Henrique Meirelles, the former finance minister and former president of the Central Bank who supported the PT party. recently.

Meirelles is a well-regarded name among the private sector. As Minister of Finance of Michel Temer (MDB), his administration was responsible for approving the spending ceiling and the labor reform.

For this person, the business community —both in the productive sector and in the financial market— wants to be on the winning side and demands conditions to show public support from now on.

One of the demands has already reached Lula directly, according to advisers and friends of the former president. For them, the simple indication of the Minister of Finance would already meet part of the expectations.

Otherwise, they want a clear commitment from Lula in relation to spending control and obedience to a strong fiscal anchor – currently, the spending ceiling is in effect (a measure that corrects one year’s spending for the previous year’s inflation).

In addition, they preach the defense of reforms, especially administrative and tax reforms. They also do not want a review of the new labor rules, although they accept some of the proposals raised by Lula during the campaign.

An industry businessman, who did not want to be identified, said he was supporting Lula, but that, with Bolsonaro’s growth, he could stay with the current president.

He considers that Bolsonaro tends to keep Minister Paulo Guedes at the forefront of the economy — with a plan that, despite not being liberal as promised, managed to improve some economic parameters, particularly employment and the business environment. According to this industrialist, the scenario makes it difficult to show support for any candidate publicly.

In retail, another big name said that, despite Lula being mathematically favorite in the second round, Bolsonaro’s performance caused “psychological pressure” along with the divergence between election results and polls.

In his assessment, there are chances that Bolsonaro can turn the tide, especially among the poorest in the Northeast and Minas Gerais. The use of platforms in the states will also be relevant.

Lula would have to turn votes in the Southeast — facing Bolsonaro with the platform of Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo.

Members of the president’s campaign claim that the re-elected governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), promised the president a turnaround in the state. Historically, the result of the election in Minas indicates the final score of the vote for President of the Republic.

However, these advisors find it difficult for this reversal to occur, especially in the north of the state, which prefers Lula. This situation is repeated in the North and Northeast, where Lula’s votes would be consolidated.

To win, Bolsonaro would have to turn over 60% of the votes attributed to Simone Tebet (MDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) — something considered unlikely, but not impossible.

An important businessman from Minas said that there was a general scare with the results of the elections, but that the maxim of the most experienced politicians in the state continues to apply, according to which “election and mining, only after the investigation”.

An important banker in São Paulo explains that this unpredictability brought caution in the second round.

The business community is also concerned about a possible increase in abstentions in the second round, especially in the North and Northeast – Lula’s base of support.

For this group, voters in these regions went to the polls motivated by regional candidates —deputies and senators— who have already been elected. Pressure from these candidates to appear at the polls again would not exist in the second round.

These businessmen are also insecure in the face of the division of parties in support of Lula — such as Simone Tebet’s MDB and Ciro Gomes’ PDT.

In the case of pedestrians, although the party fully supported Lula, Ciro did not even mention the name of the former president when he released a video of support.