Rising oil values ​​Petrobras and boosts the stock market

The Brazilian stock market advanced on Wednesday (5), mainly driven by companies linked to the production and export of oil.

This appreciation of the energy sector came in the wake of the expressive cut in production of the raw material, announced a few days ago and confirmed this Wednesday by the cartel of producing countries and their allies, known by the acronym OPEC+. The cut volume surprised the market.

The Ibovespa, a parameter index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, closed with a gain of 0.83%, at 117,197 points. Petrobras’ most traded papers jumped 3.76%. 3R Petroleum advanced 3.49% and PetroRio climbed 3.20%.

The daily supply of oil will be reduced by around 2 million barrels a day, which represents the biggest cut since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020.

Restricting supply is OPEC’s strategy to raise prices, which fell by more than 20% in the third quarter due to the increased perception that the international scenario of high interest rates to curb inflation could severely damage the growth of the world economy. .

The barrel of Brent oil rose 1.99% in the late afternoon, quoted at US$ 93.63 (R$ 488.16), the highest value since mid-September. Since the beginning of the week, when OPEC’s intention to cut was announced, the raw material has already risen almost 6.5%.

Pedro Serra, head of research at Ativa Investimentos, says that the size of the announced cut surprised investors, raising expectations of appreciation in oil companies’ shares. “The market expected a cut of 1 million barrels, but it came to around 2 million,” he said.

The United States accuses Russia, the main OPEC ally, of using oil in retaliation for economic sanctions imposed on Moscow since the start of the Ukrainian War. The White House announced that, to ease the rise in prices, the country will put 10 million barrels of its strategic reserve on the market next month, according to Reuters.

But those reserves are rapidly depleting after record withdrawals ordered by the government since March, to the point where they have reached their lowest level since July 1984.

The rise of 1.54% in Vale shares also exerted a positive weight on the Ibovespa, whose traded volume was the highest in this session.

The mining company’s appreciation took place on the same day that the Asian financial market reflected on China’s decision to reduce the cost of credit for financing in the housing area. The country is the main destination for iron ore and steel produced in Brazil.

This stimulus from the Chinese government was responsible for the jump of 5.90% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this Wednesday, according to Roberto Dumas, chief strategist at Voiter.

“China cannot allow social tensions given the need to sustain the dictatorship. Despite the country going through a debt problem with real estate assets, the central bank and regulators were already expected to intervene. There was one, The interest rate for financing the first home has already dropped,” explained Dumas, who specializes in the Chinese economy.

Regardless of the movements in the energy and basic materials sectors in this session, Brazil’s stock market rose 6.5% this week, also reflecting the optimism on the part of investors with the result of the first round of elections, which confirmed the dispute between the President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former President Lula (PT) in the second round.

Analysts said the fierce dispute with Bolsonaro, a candidate perceived as having a more liberal view, will force Lula to nod and present names more aligned with the market.

“The expectation of a rise in oil impacts Petrobras and other oil companies, which have a very large weight in the stock market”, commented Heitor Martins, variable income specialist at Nexgen Capital. “But it’s not the only factor, as we’ve also been able to see increases in Vale’s shares and also in the financial sector,” he said.

If, on the one hand, the rise in oil has brought gains to markets influenced by the price of raw materials, on the other hand, it adds more concerns to the inflationary crisis that has been catapulting interest rates around the world.

The need for an exaggerated increase in the price of credit is feared by investors because it could impose a strong slowdown in the world economy, the effects of which would be a generalized fall in investments in companies and, consequently, an increase in unemployment.

The main indexes traded in New York’s financial district of Wall Street fell on Wednesday after delivering two days of consistent gains earlier this week.

The S&P 500, parameter of the New York Stock Exchange, closed the day down 0.20%. Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropped 0.14% and 0.25%, respectively.

Dollar rises as market returns to seek inflation protection

The growth of investments in the Brazilian stock exchange in this session was not enough to avoid the rise in the exchange rate. The spot commercial dollar advanced 0.34%, at R$5.1870 on sale.

This high reflected the 1% appreciation of the American currency abroad on Wednesday, according to the DXY index, which compares the dollar to the currencies of the main economies on the planet.

This Tuesday (4), however, the American currency had a strong fall in relation to global pairs. The dollar lost ground as investors became more willing to exchange the security of fixed income in the United States for opportunities on the stock exchanges, which have been greatly undervalued this year.

Market analysts had already warned that the upward movement in shares and the fall in the dollar recorded earlier this week was momentary and only reflected investors starting the quarter by going shopping in a scenario of shares strongly devalued by the inflation crisis and uncertainties about a potential recession. .

Daniel Miraglia, chief economist at Integral Group, explained that markets do not fall in a straight line and, in the midst of a prolonged downward movement, there are breaths provoked by positive narratives in which investors momentarily embark.