Lula wins in 8 of the 10 cities that lost the most jobs

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has been emphasizing in his reelection campaign positive data on job recovery. The speech, however, seems to have little effect in the cities that lost the most jobs this year: of the 10 worst in the ranking, 8 gave the most votes to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first round.

The four cities that lost the most jobs until August, in absolute numbers, are in the Northeast region and register negative balances of more than 2,200 jobs each: Sirinhaém (PE), Capela (SE), São José da Laje (AL) and Formoso River (PE).

Then appear Indianópolis (MG), Parauapebas (PA), Lucélia (SP), São Miguel dos Campos (AL), Santo Antônio dos Lopes (MA) and Campo Alegre (AL).

Among the cities that make up the ranking, Bolsonaro only had more votes than Lula in the municipality of Pará and São Paulo.

On the other hand, when considering the 10 cities that opened the most formal jobs in the year, the current president obtained more votes than the other candidates in 6: Rio de Janeiro (47%), Brasília (51.6%), Belo Horizonte (46.6%), Curitiba (55.3%), Goiânia (56.1%) and Manaus (53.6%).

The data are from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and the Caged (General Registry of Employed and Unemployed), from the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.

Considering the entire national territory, the job market has indeed shown signs of improvement — the balance between admissions and dismissals is positive at 1.853 million jobs from January to August. But in cities that lost the most jobs in 2022, a more fragile scenario weighs, economists say.

“In small towns, the closing of jobs has a brutal impact. Many depend on the public sector to have jobs too”, says Sergio Firpo, a researcher at Insper and a columnist for Sheet. “Mobility in these locations is less and the transition from one job to another takes place at a longer interval.”

Lula led the vote intention in the Northeast in the polls ahead of the first round, despite Bolsonaro’s efforts to win the sympathy of local voters. For political analysts, the perception is of a consolidated positive image of the PT in the states of the region.

When the polls were counted, the PT’s favoritism among Northeasterners was confirmed: it was in this region where the two main candidates had the greatest difference in votes. Lula scored 67%, against 26.8% for Bolsonaro. The PT also won in the North, but in the South, Southeast and Midwest, the current president won.

“The positive memory that people have of the PT governments in the Northeast is due to the above-average growth of the states during the 2000s, with salary increases and inclusion through income transfer programs”, adds Firpo.

In the crisis of 2015 and 2016, the region was more punished with the loss of jobs and also took a long time to recover from the recession. Meanwhile, the Bolsonaro government would have been slow to look at these poorer municipalities — aid would have arrived only with Auxílio Brasil, raised on the eve of the election to the current R$600.

“There may have been a certain delay on the part of the Bolsonaro government to deal with Bolsa Família, it lacked a look at the poorest population during the first years of mandate, with an increase in the queue, lack of updating the register and highlighting the policy The fruits may be harvesting now”, says Firpo.

The Pernambuco city of Sirinhaém (75 km from Recife) had a negative balance of 2,298 formal vacancies from January to August, according to Caged. Layoffs were driven by the sugar manufacturing and refining activity (3,333).

The sugar-alcohol sector has a strong weight in the region, and hiring and cuts follow the seasonal patterns of the sugarcane crop.

“The sugarcane off-season ends up dictating the behavior of the job market in the Zona da Mata region. Hiring drops, and the harvest starts again in August”, says Paulo Rocha, president of CUT (Central Única de Trabalhadores) in Pernambuco.

All five municipalities neighboring Sirinhaém also voted above 66% for Lula in the first round, even those that had positive balances in Caged this year, such as Escada (which created 255 seats and granted 68.88% of the votes to Lula) and Tamandaré (44 seats and 66.08% of votes).

Pernambuco was also affected by heavy rains and floods in the first semester, and the lower income population ended up feeling the impacts more.

For labor market specialist Eduardo Zylberstajn, this is an intuitive observation: where the economy is worse, general dissatisfaction grows, and the population looks for alternatives.

Even though it is not possible to make a direct relationship between employment and voting, he considers that unemployment is such a relevant factor for economic satisfaction that its weight cannot be discarded.

Economist Edgard Leonardo Lima, a professor at the Tiradentes University Center, follows the same line. According to him, the loss of work in smaller municipalities, associated with inflationary pressure, affects the individual assessment of the economy.

This, he says, may have impacted the voting decision of local voters – and benefited Lula.

“The citizen who lost his job in a city like Sirinhaém may even have seen that inflation has stopped rising. But he also realizes that inflation is still parked on the 15th floor of the building. This is the real economy. feel when it’s time to go to the fair, to go to the supermarket”, he says.

According to Lima, small municipalities in the Northeast have less economic dynamism, which is reflected in a scarcer job market.

“All it takes is an industry to close, or a mill to stop grinding, and these cities stop offering jobs,” he says. “Here in the Northeast we have a lack of connection of the economy between the capitals and the interior”, he adds.

Economist and professor Gustavo Casseb Pessoti, president of the Regional Economic Council of Bahia, assesses that the northeast economy was already in difficulties before the pandemic. In the past decade, he recalls, the activity felt the effects of phenomena such as water crises. The local situation, he adds, is also marked by a high level of informality.

“Not only does the Northeast grow less than Brazil and, therefore, generate less employment, but it also feels the setback of a less dynamic economy”, he points out.