The new IMF forecasts, September deflation and what matters in the market

ANDsta is the edition of newsletterr FolhaMercado this Wednesday (12). want to receive it from monday to Friday at 7 am In your email? Sign up below:

IMF sees Brazil growing below average

The IMF has revised up its expectations for Brazil’s GDP this year, to 2.8%. Even so, the country is expected to grow below the global average, the average for Latin America and the average for developing countries.

In numbers: by 2022, the world should have an average growth of 3.2%while in Latin America the increase should be 3.5%, and among the emerging 3.7%.

• For 2023, Brazil’s outlook is even worse, with GDP growing only 1%while the world must grow 2.7% —level considered low by the IMF.

• report of Sheet last month showed that since the governments Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer (2011-2018) Brazil has had growth below the global average, and the IMF report shows that the trend will be repeated with the current president.

in reactionEconomy Minister Paulo Guedes said that the forecast for next year is wrong and that the projections are contaminated by technical errors and political motivations.

• The Central Bank calculates that Brazil will grow 2.5% next year and 2.7% this year, while the market sees GDP growth of 0.54% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2022.

on the global stage, the agency assesses that persistent and unbridled inflation is the biggest threat to the economy. Much of the rise in prices comes from the persistence of the Ukrainian War and its direct consequences, such as the energy crisis.

• In response to the famine, central banks raise interest rates, which should slow the world’s largest economies and hold back global growth until next year, says the IMF.

Deflation in the IPCA and savings in the blue

Once again, gasoline pulled Brazil’s official price index down. The IPCA had deflation of 0.29% in September, informed this Tuesday (11) the IBGE.

As a result of the sequence of three consecutive drops in the indicator, savings once again beat inflation and had a real return of 0.02% in the 12 months ending in September, according to TradeMap.

In numbers: the fall in prices came with less intensity than expected by the market, whose median of analysts was deflation of 0.34% In September. In 12 months, the IPCA accumulates a high of 7.17%.

What explains: the transport group dropped 1.98% in the month and had an impact of -0.41 percentage point on the September index. Communication also dropped (-2.08%), food and beverages (-0.51%), and household articles (-0.13%).

No gasoline, no deflation: given its weight in the IPCA, fuel was responsible for the decline in the index in the last three months – just as it had driven the rise in the periods prior to the ICMS cut sanctioned by the government.

• In the IBGE calculations, if gasoline were excluded from the calculations, the IPCA would rise in July (0.39%), August (0.32%) and September (0.15%).

in food, the fall in prices should stop here, according to economists interviewed by the Sheet. They point out that the food and beverage group should have moderate increases from October to December.

What went up the most in September: clothing (1.77%) had the highest inflation of the month, and personal expenses (0.95%), the main positive pressure (0.10 percentage point).

• In terms of items, the major contribution (0.02 percentage point) came from onions (11.22%). Food accumulates skyrocketing 127.3% in 12 months.

Argentina’s ‘Coldplay’ and ‘Qatar’ Dollars

The Argentine government announced on Tuesday the creation of two new dollar quotations: the “Coldplay dollar” and the “Qatar dollar”, which are added to the other 12 variants of the American currency officially existing in the country.

In addition to them, there is the clandestine “blue” dollar (280 pesos), which is much more adopted in the local economy than the official one (149 pesos).

Understand:

• The “Coldplay dollar” earned its nickname from the series of concerts the band will be playing in the country this month. The show production sector has access to a dollar quoted at 200 pesos to fund bands, artists and the infrastructure for international concerts.

• The “Qatar Dollar” is intended to prevent the outflow of currency from the country. Named after the World Cup, it imposes an additional fee of 45% to use the credit card abroad. The idea is to encourage Argentines to use dollar bills (which many keep at home or in safes).

What explains: the country has a dollar purchase restriction policy. Only some sectors have access to the official currency value (149 pesos) to import a limited number of products.

• Private individuals can buy, at this price, only $200 per month for savings or travel purposes. For everything else, the population resorts to “blue”.

Other official dollar variants:

• “Soy Dollar”: incentive for the agriculturist to sell his production at a more competitive value, the 200 pesos per dollar.

• “Netflix Dollar”: to pay for streaming services. It is the value of the official dollar plus two taxes, one of 30%called “solidarity”, and another rate of 35%.

Braskem shoots up with purchase news

Braskem petrochemical shares soared 20.4% this Tuesday and closed at R$ 33.58, on a negative day for stock indices around the world, including the Ibovespa.

What explains: the sharp rise came after news published by columnist Lauro Jardim, from the newspaper O Globo, that the American manager Apollo should increase by 25% its proposal to buy 100% of Braskem’s shares, to BRL 50 per action.

• Also according to the columnist, Apollo’s intention is to take the petrochemical company private on the Brazilian stock exchange and list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

• After the closing of the trading session, Braskem reported that Petrobras and Novonor (formerly Odebrecht), its controlling shareholders, said there was no new information about the sale of their stakes in the petrochemical company.

The Brazilian Stock Exchange followed the negative climate from abroad and fell 0.96%, at 114,827 points. The dollar rose 1.54%, quoted at BRL 5.27.

Out therethe market spent the day with an eye on England, where the central bank has been buying government bonds to ease the fall in shares.

• The offensive is also to help British pension funds, which are in trouble and have to sell bonds to meet obligations to creditors.

• Stocks went negative with the announcement by the President of the Bank of England that he will interrupt the process of buying bonds as early as this Friday (14th).