The dollar opened Wednesday (26) lower against the real, following the weakness of the US currency abroad amid expectations of a possible deceleration in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while local investors awaited the decision to monetary policy of the Central Bank of Brazil and monitored the electoral news.
At 9:11 am (Brasília time), the dollar retreated 0.55%, at R$ 5.2912 on sale.
On Tuesday (25), already maintaining the negative tone of the previous day, the Brazilian Stock Exchange took off again from the upward movement in the international market and closed the day down, while the dollar rose to R$ 5.32.
The attacks by ex-deputy Roberto Jefferson against federal police, and the impact that the event may have on President Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) reelection chances with less than a week to go before the second round, have maintained the tone of greater caution among market agents.
In exchange, the dollar, which rose almost 3% on Monday, the highest rise in six months, started the session high again, reaching R$ 5.35 at the maximum of the day, but lost strength and closed with appreciation of 0.41%, at R$ 5.3230.
The Ibovespa stock index closed down 1.20%, trading at 114,625 points, after having dropped 3.27% in the trading session on Monday (24), the biggest drop since November last year.
In the US, the day was one of gains for the main stock indices — the S&P 500 advanced 1.63%, the Nasdaq rose 2.25% and the Dow Jones rose 1.07%.
“The episode involving the arrest of Roberto Jefferson was evaluated as negative for Bolsonaro’s campaign, in a fearful view that the event could put a brake on the current president’s recovery movement,” XP analysts pointed out in a report.
Last week, the stock market advanced 7%, the biggest weekly increase since November 2020, supported by state-owned shares and the expectation of reelection of candidate Jair Bolsonaro – Petrobras preferred shares fell 2.1%, and common shares fell 1 .5%, after falling above 9% the day before. Already those of BB (Banco do Brasil) yielded 1.72%, after the fall of more than 7% the day before.
On the indicator agenda, the IPCA-15 (National Index of Consumer Prices 15) rose again in October, after two consecutive months of decline, informed the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this Tuesday. The increase was 0.16%.
The change is the smallest for the month since 2019 (0.09%), but came above financial market forecasts. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an increase of 0.09%.
In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 even lost its breath, but remains on the rise. The advance reached 6.85% until October. It was at 7.96% until September.
According to Felipe Rodrigo de Oliveira, economist at MAG Investimentos, the bullish surprise was mainly due to the 28% increase in airfare.
However, in a more detailed assessment, the dynamics of inflation came better than expected, with rises below expectations in food and with better-behaved industrial goods, said Oliveira.
“Today’s result favors an expectation of improvement in the inflationary scenario, although it is not enough to return to the tolerance range of the BC inflation target”, said the economist.
In the international market, investors’ attention is turned to the quarterly corporate earnings balance. This Tuesday, “big techs” such as Microsoft and Alphabet (the parent company of Google), released their results for the third quarter.
Microsoft announced on Tuesday (25) that it had higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue, driven by the cloud computing segment, which helped to cushion a decline in the personal computer business.
Microsoft had revenue of $50.12 billion in the quarter, compared with $45.32 billion a year earlier. Analysts on average expected $49.61 billion, according to Refinitiv data.
Alphabet, the parent of Google, on Tuesday reported quarterly revenue below Wall Street estimates as advertisers cut spending in the face of the economic slowdown.
with Reuters
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