Bolsonaro’s campaign assesses that economic proposals are the hardest blow for reelection

The campaign of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) sees in the recent news about the plans of Minister Paulo Guedes’ team the hardest blow to the search for the reelection of the Chief Executive.

Campaign and government officials seek to counter the criticism that has emerged since last week, when the Sheet publicized the idea of ​​the Ministry of Economy of de-indexing the minimum wage and retirement.

In addition to this proposal, another issue that resonates badly —especially with the middle class—was reported by the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo and deals with studies in the technical area of ​​Economics to deduct health and education expenses from the Income Tax.

According to members of the campaign’s hard core, with these proposals, Guedes has behaved “like an electoral corporal for the PT”.

There is also the aggravating factor of time: Guedes’ plans became public in the last ten days of the second round, which takes place next Sunday (30), leaving little time to try to counter them.

The PT adopted the strategy of making the most of the minister’s plans that were released last week. The assessment in the PT campaign is that the idea of ​​messing with the salary and income tax has the potential to scare away voters.

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) had already promised to raise the minimum wage above inflation and exempt those earning up to R$5,000 from income tax. These proposals began to be exhaustively explored in TV advertising and in campaign materials to make counterpoints to Guedes’ projects.

Special advisor to the president and defeated candidate for deputy in the elections, Lieutenant Mosart published a video of Bolsonaro, this Wednesday morning (26), in which he suggests that Lula wants to tax Pix.

“Lula wants to recreate CPMF? Tax the Pix, our creation that served more than 100 million Brazilians, especially the poorest? Lula, recreate CPMF, no. Tax the Pix, much less”, says Bolsonaro.

Guedes has also defended the return of the tax on financial transactions in the past, on more than one occasion, but the initiative did not prosper in the Planalto.

The president’s attack on Lula using Pix and the CPMF is one of the attempts to respond to the exploitation that the PT campaign has made of studies by the economic team.

The assessment of Bolsonaro’s allies is that the economic agendas do much more harm than any other attack in the campaign so far.

Even the episode involving the now ex-ally Roberto Jefferson, arrested and accused of attempted murder after resisting arrest and throwing a grenade at Federal Police (PF) agents.

The case, according to Bolsonaro’s allies, could scratch and splash on the campaign, but the president’s action to condemn Jefferson’s act would have been effusive and quick enough to bring distance to the prisoner.

The episode became a burning point against the president’s campaign, being exploited by his rivals. Opponents have linked the case to a wave of political violence that they say is being fueled by the president.

Since Sunday, Bolsonaro and allies have sought to try to distance themselves from the former deputy – a first-time defender of Bolsonarism. The Chief Executive said that they do not have a photo together, which is not true, and called him a thug.

But what has been taking up more time from meetings at the president’s campaign HQ are the economic agendas, indigestible to the public just four days before the second round.

Internal surveys of the campaign show a tendency towards a technical tie. In the most optimistic scenario, Bolsonaro has 53% of valid votes. In the least optimistic, he has 49% and Lula is ahead.

Last Monday, the report by the Sheet caught the moment in which Bolsonaro watched the electoral time of the PT opponent during lunch in Vila Planalto, on the outskirts of the Federal District.

The video says that Auxílio Brasil will end in December, that there are cuts in the Popular Pharmacy, and brings images of deputy Janones (Avante-MG) saying that the minimum wage and pensions will have a reduction in value next year – in reference to deindexation .

Guedes was seated in front of the president, also accompanied by ministers Bruno Bianco (AGU), Wagner Rosário (CGU) and Célio Faria Jr (Government Secretariat). After seeing PT’s insertion, Bolsonaro comments with the head of the Economy: “You talk to the press, but they don’t publish anything”.

The scene captured what is a frequent complaint from the Chief Executive. In the case of the minimum wage, the initial strategy was to deny it, despite the proposals having been discussed in the folder and there being supporting documents.

Another will be to blame alleged PT infiltrators in the portfolio, as the minister himself said on Tuesday (25).

“Someone, possibly a PT from within — and among 160,000 people, there must be a lot of PT inside the ministry—, takes on a job that doesn’t have our endorsement or our support. We never decide anything in that direction. They do a little internal work , they sign it themselves and pass it on to journalists”, said Guedes, at an event with the OCB (Organization of Cooperatives in Brazil).

The narrative that the infiltrators are to blame also reverberates among campaigners. Despite complaints that Guedes would be a PT electoral corporal, there is an assessment that the fault lies with the dissemination of the studies – not the fact that they exist.

On the same day, the Ministry of Economy released a note to deny the Income Tax and minimum wage proposals, and said it did not recognize “clandestine flows of information”.

“The institution regrets that there are some information vehicles trying to bring confusion and unrest to Brazilian society in an undue way. And it warns that institutional channels are the only ones to obtain official information”, says the text.