Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) remains ahead of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in voting intentions among people benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, having increased his advantage in this group, according to the most recent Datafolha poll.
They say they will vote for PT in this second round 61% of respondents who receive or live with someone who is a beneficiary of the income transfer program. In the first survey carried out after the first round, they were 56%, a number that rose to 62% the following week and returned to 56% last week.
The voting intention for the current president rose from 37% at the beginning of October to 33% and 40% in the following two weeks. Now it’s at 34%.
Voters benefiting from the aid represent 24% of respondents in this survey. The margin of error is four percentage points in this audience.
In valid votes, Lula rose from 58% last week to 64% in the most recent survey. Bolsonaro went from 42% to 36%.
The research shows that Lula increased the advantage among the poorest, after the Sheet to reveal last week Minister Paulo Guedes’ (Economy) plan to stop correcting the minimum wage and pensions for past inflation.
The distance between the PT and the current president grew from 20 to 28 percentage points among voters with a family income of up to two minimum wages (R$ 2,424), a variation above the margin of error of two points, more or less, in this group. . In Brazil, 48% of the electorate earns up to two minimum wages.
Among Auxílio beneficiaries, the gap started at 19 points in the first survey after the first round, rose to 29 points in the second round, 16 points in the third and is now at 27 points.
According to Datafolha, among people not benefiting from the Aid, Bolsonaro is numerically ahead (48%) of Lula (45%). In the previous week, the two were with, respectively, 47% and 46%. In valid votes, they are now at 51% and 49%, respectively.
Among voters from families who are on the program, 58% responded that they would “certainly” vote for Lula, compared to 53% a week earlier. For Bolsonaro, the percentage of certainty went from 37% to 33%.
The institute heard 4,580 people in 252 municipalities between Tuesday (25) and this Thursday (27). The survey was commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo and is registered under the code BR-04208/2022 at the Superior Electoral Court.
The research photographs this stage of the electoral race and does not necessarily predict the vote they will have on the 30th, when the second round will be held.
government assessment
Also according to Datafolha, 31% of voters who receive the benefit, or live with someone who is a beneficiary, consider the current government to be great or good, compared to 32% last week.
39% point to Bolsonaro’s management as bad or terrible, the same number as in the previous survey. Those who classify it as regular remained at 28%.
Among those who do not receive the aid, the evaluation percentages have not changed: they are 40% of excellent/good and 39% of bad/very bad.
The rejection of Bolsonaro is at 56% among those benefited by the program and 44% among the other voters interviewed. 33% and 46% reject Lula, respectively.
Among those who receive Auxílio Brasil, 20% say they always trust what the president says, and 51% of beneficiaries say they never trust Bolsonaro’s words.
AID AND FGTS
Auxílio Brasil received an adjustment to R$ 600 two months before the election and had its scope expanded on the eve of the second round. The contracting of the payroll loan for these beneficiaries was also released. This month, the payment schedule was brought forward to the period from October 11 to 25, before the second round.
The readjustment of the benefit amount was one of Jair Bolsonaro’s main bets in this election. According to the Ministry of Citizenship, Auxílio Brasil was paid to 21.1 million families in October, after the inclusion of 480,000 new beneficiaries.
In the first round, however, the expansion of the program failed to reverse the trend of PT votes among the poorest.
The president also launched an additional offensive to try to co-opt voters who earn up to two minimum wages by offering an advance on FGTS resources (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço) not yet received by workers for use at home.
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