Opinion – Paul Krugman: America as we know it is not lost yet, but it is on the edge

If you’re not feeling fear on the eve of the midterm elections, you’re not paying attention.

We can talk about the conventional stakes of these elections – their implications for economic policy, major social programs, environmental policy, civil liberties and reproductive rights. And it’s not wrong to have these discussions: life will go on, no matter what happens on the political scene, and government policies will continue to have a big impact on people’s lives.

But I, at least, always feel a little guilty when I write about inflation or the fate of Medicare. Yes, those are my specialties. Focusing on them, however, feels a bit like denial, or at least evasion, when the fundamental stakes today are so existential.

Ten or 20 years ago, those of us who warned that the GOP was becoming increasingly extremist and undemocratic were often considered alarmists. But the alarmists were vindicated every step of the way, from the false pretenses put forward for the Iraq war to the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

Indeed, it is now almost common sense that the Republican Party, if it can, will transform the United States into something like Viktor Orban’s Hungary: a democracy on paper, but in practice an ethnonationalist and authoritarian one-party state. After all, US conservatives made no secret that they looked to Hungary as a model; they celebrated Orban and presented him at their conferences.

At this point, however, I believe that even this common sense is wrong. If the US falls into one-party rule, it will be much worse, much uglier, than what we see in Hungary today.

Before I get there, a word about the role of mainstream political issues in these elections.

If the Democrats lose one or both houses of Congress, there will be a loud chorus of recriminations, many of them saying they should have focused on kitchen table issues and not said anything about threats to democracy.

I claim no knowledge here, but I would note that an incumbent president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. The only exception to that rule this century was in 2002, when George W. Bush managed to divert attention from a jobless recovery by posing as America’s defender against terrorism. This record suggests, at the very least, that Democrats should have talked even more about issues beyond the economy.

I would also say that pretending that this is an ordinary election season, where only economic policy is at stake, would be fundamentally dishonest.

Finally, even voters who are more concerned with wages and the cost of living than with democracy must nevertheless be very concerned about the Republican Party’s rejection of democratic norms.

On the one hand, Republicans have been clear about their plan to use the threat of economic chaos to win concessions they could not win in the normal legislative process.

Also, while I understand voters’ instinct to choose a different driver when they don’t like the direction of the economy, they should understand that this time, voting Republican isn’t just about giving someone else a chance behind the wheel; it could be a big step towards handing permanent control to the Republican Party, with no chance of voters reviewing that decision if they don’t like the results.

Which brings me to the question of what a one-party US would look like.

As I said, it is now almost common sense that the Republicans are trying to turn us into Hungary. Indeed, Hungary offers a case study on how democracies can die in the 21st century.

But what strikes me when reading about the Orban administration is that while his regime is deeply repressive, the repression is relatively subtle. As one insightful article put it, it is “soft fascism” that renders dissidents powerless through control of the economy and the media, without beating them up or putting them in prison.

Do you think a Maga regime [Make America Great Again, ou faça a América grande de novo], with or without Donald Trump, would it be equally subtle? Listen to speeches at any Trump rally. They are full of revenge, of promises to arrest and punish anyone – including technocrats like Anthony Fauci – that the movement rejects.

And much of the American right sympathizes with, or at least doesn’t want to condemn, violence against its opponents. The Republican reaction to the attack on Paul Pelosi by an invader defending Maga was revealing: many in the party did not even pretend to be horrified. Instead, they came up with ugly conspiracy theories. And the rest of the party did not ban or penalize purveyors of vile falsehoods.

In short, if Maga wins, we’ll likely find ourselves wishing his government was as tolerant, relatively benign, and relatively nonviolent as Orban’s.

Now, this catastrophe need not happen. Even if the Republicans win big in the midterm elections, it will not be the end of democracy, although it will be a big blow. And nothing in politics is permanent, not even a total descent into authoritarianism.

On the other hand, even if we get some relief this week, the fact is that democracy is in deep danger with the authoritarian right. The America as we know it is not yet lost, but it is on the edge.

Translated by Luiz Roberto M. Gonçalves