Panel SA: Alckmin gains strength as possible finance minister

The vice president-elect, Geraldo Alckmin, was once again the leader among the names considered by Lula to head the Ministry of Finance.

Although officially he has denied the intention of delegating a ministry to his deputy, Lula finds himself facing a chessboard.

On the one hand, the PT wants to have a person he trusts and with the ability to negotiate with Congress. On the other hand, he does not find in his closest group anyone with the right profile, and good transit in the market, to lead a team of economists the size of André Lara Resende and Pérsio Arida.

Resende was one of the fathers of the privatizations of FHC and Arida, mentor of the Real plan.

So far, Alckmin is the only one capable of gathering a team of this caliber around him.

The second option, still according to Lula’s interlocutors, would be Alexandre Padilha, who during the campaign approached the business community and had a result considered “exceptional” by the PT.

Padilha, however, has been considered to command Health. Fernando Haddad, another faithful supporter of the president-elect, is being considered for Education. Neither of the two, however, would like to head their respective portfolios, according to Lula’s interlocutors.

The problem with this movement of pieces is that Lula thinks of having a “political” minister in strategic areas –such as the Economy, Education and Health–, surrounded by a secretariat of excellence, with technical names and an undeniable reputation.

Another indication that Alckmin has a great chance of being minister is the concentration of relevant economic issues in his hands, even as he commands the transition team. In discussion meetings, he writes everything down and explores the issues looking for details.

It was up to him, for example, to articulate in Congress the approval of the Transition PEC, a license for the removal of welfare expenses from the ceiling (a rule that corrects one year’s expenses for the previous year’s inflation).

This Tuesday (15th), Alckmin also had a meeting with Felipe Salto, current Secretary of Finance of São Paulo. About ten days ago, the deputy himself probed the economist to find out if he would agree to be part of the economic team. He is tipped to be Secretary of the Treasury.

Interlocutors from Alckmin and members of the transition state that Salto has given a positive signal if he receives an invitation. Until then, his transfer to Brasília to work on the transition, whose headquarters were set up at the Centro Cultural Banco do Brasil, is unfeasible.

Unsuccessfully, federal deputy Vicente Cândido (PT-MG) even asked Salto to anticipate his departure from the São Paulo Treasury Department for next week.

At this Tuesday’s meeting, Alckmin wanted to have Salto’s assessment of the proposal for a new fiscal anchor – which provides for the replacement of the spending ceiling by a more flexible rule.

The secretary of SP defends the revision of the ceiling, which is in the same direction as the proposal that he and a group of specialists are developing. This team includes lawyers and economists, such as Fernando Scaff, Eduardo Walmsley Carneiro and José Roberto Afonso.

Salto estimates that the ceiling burst this year should be around R$ 150 billion. Instead, he supports the proposal put forward by Treasury technicians with rules that link the General Government’s Net Debt to the growth in expenditures.

Julio Wiziack (interim) with Paulo Ricardo Martins and Diego Felix