PT will cede permanent exception to Bolsa Família, but requires at least 4 years

The elected government plans to give in to try to approve the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition, but does not give up that the increase in spending will be valid for four years – the entire term of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

There is guidance not to negotiate a shorter term, especially in the Senate. The intention is to approve the measure in the House with a good vote so that it reaches the House with force.

Some of Lula’s allies say that, if it were to approve a measure for just one year, it wouldn’t be necessary to wear out to approve a PEC, which requires 308 votes in the Chamber and 49 votes in the Senate.

A wing of the Centrão and parties that are still negotiating adhesion to the elected government have expanded the articulation so that Congress approves the measure only for the first year of the new government. The assessment is that the Legislature will lose bargaining power if it authorizes increased expenses throughout the PT’s term.

To try to sew an agreement in the Senate, through which the PEC will begin to proceed, the PT has the support of the president of the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission), Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP).

Alcolumbre was president of the Senate between 2019 and 2020. His election as head of the House was supported by allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), but the senator managed to renew his mandate in October with the support of PT in Amapá and has been nodding to the broken.

The parliamentarian spoke personally with some senators during the Republic Proclamation holiday, and said that he intends to seek out the 27 members of the CCJ to articulate the approval of the proposal.

This Wednesday (16), he took the lead in the meeting with the elected vice president, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), who presented the preliminary version of the PEC in the Senate. The president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), was in Egypt, at COP27.

The PT’s initial plan, according to articulators, was for the PEC to be voted directly in the Senate plenary, but Alcolumbre asked for the text to follow the normal rite, and go through the CCJ first. With this, the senator gains negotiation power and starts to have credits with the elected government.

At the meeting, he informed Lula’s allies that a good part of Congress would prefer a one-year period and indicated that he would work to help them pass the four-year proposal.

Alcolumbre and Senator Alexandre Silveira (PSD-MG) have been appointed as potential rapporteurs for the PEC. The name of the senator from Minas Gerais would be stronger, however, due to his proximity to the president of the Senate, in the opinion of parliamentarians.

The intention of the elected government is to approve the text in the CCJ and in the Senate plenary on the same day, in the last week of November. Petistas claim that it is necessary to guarantee an expressive vote in the commission so that the PEC is taken to the plenary in the afternoon with force.

By the PT’s accounts, it would be possible to guarantee, at least, the support of 16 of the 27 members of the commission. Privately, Lula’s interlocutors claim, however, that the number could be much higher, and that Bolsonaro’s base will have difficulties in voting against a measure involving Bolsa Família.

The party’s plan is to speak individually with all members of the CCJ and take advantage of the concentrated effort of the Senate, next week, to seek out the other senators, including the president’s eldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

The task of talking to the senators was divided between the leader of the acronym in the Senate, Paulo Rocha (PT-PA), the elected senator Wellington Dias (PT-PI) —scheduled to negotiate the 2023 Budget— and Senator Jaques Wagner ( PT-BA).

The idea is to make it clear that the debate, from now on, after the presentation of the draft of the PEC, will not be restricted to the PT, and that the text is just a draft. Each senator, according to one of Lula’s interlocutors in Congress, will be treated as an “institution”.

Rocha, for example, had the mission to speak with the leader of the Bolsonaro government, Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ), who complained to the Sheet that the text was being discussed in a “PT confraternity”.

Other leaders made similar complaints to the president of the CCJ, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP). The parliamentarian told Lula’s interlocutors that many senators criticized the conduct of the political articulation of the elected government, and are feeling excluded for not having been contacted.

After the criticism, Rocha and Portinho talked this Thursday. The PL parliamentarian said that the elected government “wasted time”, but said that Bolsonaro’s base is willing to talk about maintaining the Auxílio Brasil in the amount of R$ 600 and about the recomposition of the minimum wage.

The leader of the current government complained, however, about the four-year period for the social benefit to be kept off the ceiling, and demanded a definition from the Ministry of Economy. Portinho also criticized Lula’s team’s intention to vote on the PEC in the CCJ and in the Senate plenary on the same day.

Although other senators are helping in the articulation, such as Alexandre Silveira (PSD-MG), Carlos Fávaro (PSD-MT) and the president of the CCJ himself, petistas assess that the parliamentarians also make a point of talking to the group that is around Lula to feel honored.

The PT also has the support of Senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) for articulation in the Senate. Tebet —a defeated presidential candidate who supported Lula in the second round and is now part of the transition team in the area of ​​social development— was president of the CCJ before Alcolumbre and is now a full member of the commission.

There is concern about the tight deadline for approving the PEC. In the most optimistic scenario, with little obstruction from the Bolsonarist opposition, the text would be enacted in three weeks. The group with leaders from the Senate and the House would help to reconcile positions and iron out any differences.

In the Senate, two names are appointed as potential rapporteurs for the PEC: Alcolumbre and Silveira. That of the senator from Minas Gerais would be stronger due to his proximity to the president of the Senate, in the opinion of congressmen.

Congress wants to define where resources released with the PEC go

Congressional leaders are already articulating another change in the text of the PEC. They want to give power to the Legislature to also define how the resources to be released in the 2023 Budget will be spent.

An article included in the preliminary version of the PEC provides that only the transitional government will be able to indicate changes in the Budget project to predict which programs will receive the R$ 105 billion of expenses to be released.

The device mainly irritated allies of the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The argument of parliamentarians is that this mechanism is a kind of anticipation of Lula’s mandate, and that it is up to Congress to approve the Budget. Therefore, deputies and senators must also have the power in the distribution of resources.

According to the version created by Alckmin, who coordinates the transition, the budget rapporteur, senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), would be responsible for accepting or rejecting the elected government’s instructions. Castro is Lula’s ally.

An idea that has been debated by Centrão leaders is to remove this entire device or give the same power as Castro to the president of the CMO (Mixed Budget Committee), deputy Celso Sabino (União Brasil-PA), who is close to Lira.

Lula’s team wants to use these resources to grant a real increase (above inflation) for the minimum wage in 2023, in addition to expanding infrastructure works and increasing the budget of government agencies, such as Dnit (National Department of Transport Infrastructure) and social programs in the area of ​​housing (which should be renamed Minha Casa, Minha Vida) and also the Popular Pharmacy.

On another articulation front, the transition team also decided to create a group with leaders of the House and Senate of allied parties to discuss the approval of the PEC. The group should meet next Wednesday (23).

The measure was announced during the meeting of the political council this Thursday, which was attended by Alckmin. Parliamentarians claim that the intention is to set up a kind of “mixed commission” to negotiate the text with deputies and senators simultaneously.

There is concern about the tight deadline for approving the PEC. In the most optimistic scenario, with little obstruction from the Bolsonarist opposition, the text would be enacted in three weeks. The group with leaders from the Senate and the House would help reconcile positions and iron out any differences.