The average prices of soybean, corn and cotton will have a good evolution in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 harvests in Mato Grosso. They go from 24% to 36%.
It could be good news for producers, who have already obtained good yields in previous crops.
These upcoming harvests, however, have a component that the previous ones did not have: strong cost pressure.
In the same period of 2021/22 and 2022/23, soybean costs will rise 71%; those of corn, 57%; and those of cotton, 65%. The data are from Imea (Mato-Grossense Institute of Agricultural Economics).
These costs come from both the foreign and domestic market. Agribusiness, which has helped the national economy, could fall victim to its mistakes in the coming years, due to the evolution of inflation, interest rates, the dollar and the costs that these indicators bring.
Internally, the sector, which has been increasing its search for capital in private financial institutions, will pay much more for the money borrowed, due to the evolution of the Selic rate.
In addition, the maintenance of the dollar at a high level brings new costs to the activity, mainly in the purchase of inputs, most of which are imported. The dollar helps exports, however.
Based on the current scenario, Imea estimates that the total operating cost for the production of one hectare of soybean will be R$4,357 this season, but rise to R$6,146 in the next. The one for corn goes from R$ 3,564 to R$ 4,489. Cotton increases from R$ 14,854 to R$ 16,576 in the period analyzed.
Despite the increase in costs, producers from Mato Grosso increased the planting area in this 2021/22 harvest. The soybean area rises to 10.9 million hectares, with a potential production of 38 million tons. Corn, on the other hand, should add up to 6.2 million, with a volume to be harvested of 39.7 million tons.
Cleiton Gauer, superintendent of Imea, says that there is still a lot to happen, but that the climate is more favorable this year.
A point of attention is the possibility of a rainier January, a period in which there will be a concentration of a good part of the soy harvest.
As for the producers’ margins, there is still a lot to be done, according to the superintendent of Imea. Until the period 2020/21, the growth was constant, but from now on, cost and climate factors weigh. In his opinion, it is necessary to wait to see how the harvest is consolidated.
The financing of crops is also a concern for producers. The volume of money from the government is small and the profile of the Mato Grosso producer is different.
This year, the public interest rate was close to that of the private one, but it takes off from now on, according to Gauer. In addition, the producer will need a greater volume of resources.
The good thing, according to the superintendent, is that Faria Lima (a avenue in São Paulo that concentrates a good part of the country’s financial capital) is looking more towards agribusiness. The Brazilian financial system is bringing new credit tools, he adds.
The main bases for providing credit for the sector in this harvest are multinationals, with 30%, and the financial system, with 28%. In the previous harvest, the participation of multinationals was 35%, and that of the financial system, 24%.
Dealerships, which participated with 32% of the total credit granted to the sector in 2023/14, now have 15%. The producer also participated more with his own money in this harvest, increasing his participation to 19%.
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