The PT wants to form a partnership between Fernando Haddad and Persio Arida in charge of the economic area, in order to keep the party in charge of strategic decisions – but making room for the influence of a liberal economist in the formulation of public policies.
The double nomination would put Haddad in charge of the Ministry of Finance, which concentrates important economic policy decisions, while Persio would assume the Planning portfolio, which should be in charge of the Budget and also with discussions on State reform.
If this scenario is confirmed, the party’s intention is to announce both names at the same time to avoid a negative reaction from the market, which is resistant to Haddad and tends to be more receptive to the eventual appointment of Persio –who, however, is still hesitates to accept a government position.
Despite the supporters, the PT’s doubts about a “yes” by Persio —former president of the Central Bank and BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development), in addition to being one of the “fathers” of the Real Plan— members also bet on technical names within the PT itself.
Haddad had already been holding talks with representatives of the financial market and, this Friday (25th), he will represent Lula in a meeting with members of Febraban (Brazilian Federation of Banks), an entity that brings together the main banks in the country. The lunch is organized annually by the entity.
The PT’s presence at the event is emblematic and has been seen as a kind of test for the former minister, who has already taken the lead in the betting pools of who will be the head of Lula’s economic team.
Haddad will participate in the event representing Lula. The meeting will include a presentation on the current economic situation by the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto.
Interlocutors have been intensifying conversations with banks and brokerages to lessen the rejection of Haddad, arguing that the former minister has predictability as a quality – which would be positive to trim edges and calm the market.
Behind the scenes, it has also been suggested that, in the ministry, Haddad could have a management similar to that adopted by Antonio Palocci during the first Lula government —which would be seen as positive by the market— and more distant from that done later by former minister Guido Mantega, which is even more strongly rejected by the business community.
Haddad has already held conversations with members of the transition economy group on various topics, including the Transition PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution), a measure being negotiated by the elected government to increase spending on the new Bolsa Família, relieve the 2023 and honoring Lula’s electoral promises such as a real increase in the minimum wage.
One of the members of the group is precisely Persio, who is also close to the vice-president-elect, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).
Haddad had already traveled with the president-elect to COP27, the UN climate conference (United Nations), which was interpreted as a sign that his name is gaining strength to compose the new government. During the event, Haddad acted as Lula’s right hand man in different meetings, and the reports are that the ties between the two became even closer.
The former Minister of Education brings together two important characteristics for Lula: affinity and trust. Due to the importance he has for the president-elect, Haddad has also been cited as minister of other important ministries —such as Itamaraty, Education and Planning itself.
Haddad was the substitute for the former president in the 2018 election campaign, when Lula was prevented from being a candidate. Recalling that moment, he said in an interview with the Reuters agency that the former president would have chosen him as Minister of Finance in case of victory in the dispute. “This is not known, but before I was invited to be Lula’s deputy, I was invited by him to be finance minister,” said Haddad.
Professor of political science at USP (University of São Paulo), Haddad has a degree in law and, in addition to a master’s degree in economics, he has a doctorate in philosophy.
Among the different members of the party, there are those who question Haddad’s dialogue skills in negotiations. The most urgent proposal to be sewn with Congress is precisely the one that allows expenses outside the spending ceiling in the coming years – which has become an imbroglio for the party and has stalled amid articulation problems.
It is commented in the party that a better negotiator would be Alexandre Padilha, also quoted for the command of the Treasury and who is mentioned in the market as someone with a less ideological profile. He, in turn, is not unanimous in the acronym when the discussion is the command of the economic area.
Anyway, the composition of a team with names from the PT and others with a more liberal vision has already been tested in the transition itself and it is the party’s desire to maintain this logic during the government. The economics group is coordinated by Persio, André Lara Resende, Nelson Barbosa and Guilherme Mello.
Information has been circulating while the party itself has the diagnosis that the lack of a finance minister has caused damage to the elected government.
This Thursday (24), PT senator Jaques Wagner stated that the lack of a name to occupy the Treasury in the future government has been an obstacle to the advancement of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition, which seeks to make room for in the Budget so that Lula fulfills his campaign promises. The PT president, Gleisi Hoffmann, contested the speech and said that the problem is in the articulation of the party in the Senate.
This Friday, several representatives of the elected government – among them, Jaques Wagner – will be in São Paulo to meet with Lula.
The suspense over the name of the commander of the economic area is added to other episodes that have left the market uneasy about the future Lula government. Speeches by the president-elect indicating an appreciation of the social and less attention to fiscal responsibility had a bad effect on financial agents and caused turbulence on the stock exchange.
In this scenario, Alckmin has taken the opportunity to reiterate that Lula’s previous administrations were marked by fiscal responsibility, but that the president-elect cannot fail to emphasize the importance of combating hunger and keeping the Bolsa Família (currently Auxílio Brasil) at R$ 600 .
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