Panel SA: Meat price recovery with release in China should take time, analysts say

The restriction imposed by China on Brazilian beef for three and a half months caused significant losses for domestic producers, but it is unlikely that the release of the market, announced on Wednesday (15), will lead to a rapid recovery in product prices, say analysts.

Bank Itaú BBA calculates that the average price of beef exports fell 15.5% during the months of the blockade. The loss for exporters was almost US$ 1 billion, estimates the Scot consultancy.

Although the reason for the restriction was the sanitary issue, China always takes the opportunity to regulate the market,” says Marcos Jank, coordinator of the agribusiness center at Insper. “The price of beef was pressuring Chinese inflation, and this could have contributed to keeping the restriction longer.”

Despite the loss, Brazilian agribusiness will end the year setting new records. Exports should reach US$ 118 billion this year, which represents an increase of 17% compared to last year’s shipments, calculates Jank. Sales to China are expected to reach US$ 42 billion, equivalent to 36% of the total.

With Ricardo Balthazar (interim), Andressa Motter e Ana Paula Branco. ​