President of Itaú projects worsening of default for 2022

The rise in the basic interest rate should cause a slowdown in the pace of credit granting by large banks, and a negative impact on defaults. The projection is by Milton Maluhy Filho, president of Itaú Unibanco.

For him, the year 2022 “inspires great care”, in an environment of greater political uncertainty and higher interest rates.

“When I look to 2022, it is a scenario in which we will see a worsening in default, it is expected that this will be the case [devido aos juros mais altos], and we are prepared for that from the point of view of provisioning in the balance sheet,” said the executive, during a conference call on Thursday (4) to comment on the results for the third quarter.

In the period, Itaú earned R$6.8 billion, an increase of 34% in the annual comparison.​

Maluhy takes into account the current financial tightening scenario. Market analysts’ projections point to a Selic, the basic interest rate, increasingly higher in the coming months so that the BC (Central Bank) can bring inflation back to the target.

The institution’s results are already in line with this trend. Expenses with allowance for loan losses reached R$ 5.26 billion in September, a drop of 12.8% compared to the same period last year, but an increase of 14.3% compared to June 2021.

An important contribution to the bank’s last quarter result was the 13.6% growth in the credit portfolio, which reached R$962.3 billion. The bank president is, however, hoping for some accommodation.

“For next year, the expectation is for a portfolio [de crédito] grow less. It is not a macro scenario that inspires a lot of desire to continue growing, at least at the pace we have been observing,” said Maluhy Filho. He also foresees an increase in the cost of credit.

Last week, the president of Santander Brazil, Sergio Rial, had given a similar view of the bank regarding the perspectives for 2022. “[O crescimento da carteira de crédito às pessoas físicas] it should return to levels of greater normality, which have been in the high single digits, between 9% and 12%,” stated Rial.

Despite the forecast increase in default, the president of Itaú said he does not expect levels to return to those observed during the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, the bank’s 90-day delinquency reached 3.1%. In September 2021, the late rate was 2.6%.

In Maluhy Filho’s assessment, in an environment of lower growth, with inflation and high interest rates in the coming months, retail customers tend to be the most affected, compared to large wholesale companies that rely on the additional financing channel via the retail market. capitals.

Anyway, the executive acknowledged that the scenario of less predictability should also have a negative impact on operations in the capital market.

According to Maluhy Filho, business in the variable income segment in the investment banking area, such as the IPOs of companies on the Stock Exchange, should not follow the same tone that was observed during part of this year. “The result of investment banking will be lower in 2022 than in 2021,” said the executive.